FXUS65 KBYZ 290417 AAA
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
917 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING. WEAK RETURNS WERE ON KBLX RADAR NORTHWEST OF MILES CITY.
RETURNS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE EAST FOR NOW...BUT AN ISOLATED FLURRY CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO DROP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN WAS OVER THE EAST WERE SOME LOCATIONS WERE VERY
NEAR OR ACTUALLY EXCEEDING FORECAST LOWS. DROPPED TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES IN THESE SPOTS. ZONES ALREADY SENT. HUMPHREY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MADE JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY TO THE NORTH HOWEVER. THE TROUGH WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH IT.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW. SO CONTINUED THE
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN REGIONS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS WELL SO DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION AND THIS IS
WHERE THE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP. THE GFS BUILDS IN AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS IN MORE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DOES NOT BUILD THE RIDGE IN UNTIL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE GFS THEN BRINGS IN A TROUGH FOR FRIDAY WHERE THE
ECMWF BRINGS IT IN FOR SATURDAY. SO THE GFS IS ABOUT 24 HOURS
FASTER ON EVERYTHING THAN WHAT THE ECMWF. SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WHICHEVER MODEL PLAYS OUT WILL HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON TEMPS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD FOR NOW. SOLUM
&&
.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED OR BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/047 032/052 032/041 020/031 018/029 018/032 019/032
00/B 00/N 03/J 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 025/044 030/050 030/038 018/029 013/027 011/030 012/030
00/N 00/N 04/J 21/B 11/N 11/B 11/B
HDN 023/049 027/055 027/044 018/033 017/032 016/035 017/035
00/B 00/U 02/J 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 021/045 027/053 026/041 019/033 017/031 015/032 016/032
00/B 00/U 02/J 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 020/045 026/055 026/043 019/032 015/029 014/032 015/032
00/B 00/U 02/J 22/J 21/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 015/043 025/053 025/040 017/031 012/027 009/030 010/030
00/B 00/U 02/J 11/B 21/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 015/045 024/054 026/041 017/031 015/029 016/032 017/032
00/B 00/U 02/J 22/J 11/B 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
