FXUS62 KTBW 280750
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
WITH A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AS A DEEP LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CUTS OFF ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY AND THEN
VERY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST. NO REAL LARGE CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. FOR TODAY A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
THERE WILL BE A RATHER EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE SLIDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. SO DID BUMP UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT. BUT THIS SHOULD
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH EFFECT ON TEMPS GIVEN THAT IT IS JUST A VERY
HIGH AND THIN DECK. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT
CLOUDS WILL TEMPER LOWS A BIT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE
CUTOFF WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMER AND GRADUALLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER SINCE IT IS SUCH A SLOW SYSTEM THERE
WILL BE NO IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM. DRY AIR
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGHOUT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...STALLING SURFACE
FRONT OVER N FLORIDA TO ACT AS FOCUSING MECHANISM OF SURFACE
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER LOW OVER S TEXAS TO OPEN
TUESDAY AND MOVE THOUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG STALLED
FRONT IN NW GULF TUESDAY RIDES ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF REGION WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT OVER N FLORIDA
PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS
FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHWARD CLOSEST TO BETTER DYNAMICS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
PUSHED BY UPPER SHORTWAVE WHILE SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
SWEEPS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA
WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY ON BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW TO END THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CONCERNS FOR BOATERS IN THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS AND SEAS DOWN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TOWARDS THE EAST BY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TODAY FROM YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL MAKE RH
VALUES LOWER TODAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
TODAY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
DEWPOINTS BELOW THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL DIMINISH THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  51  76  59 /   5   5   5   5 
FMY  70  52  80  61 /   5   5   5   5 
GIF  68  50  77  57 /   5   5   5   5 
SRQ  68  47  76  56 /   5   5   5   5 
BKV  67  35  75  44 /   5   5   5   5 
SPG  66  56  75  62 /   5   5   5   5 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS 
     EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
     HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...35/JOHNSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS