FXUS63 KPAH 301133
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
533 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.UPDATE...
12Z MONDAY ROUTINE TAF DISCUSSION. NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC DISCUSSION
WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING LIES WITH THE ULTIMATE
TRACK OF THE WED/WED SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE EARLY THIS WEEK...SETTING UP
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AFTER THIS REPRIEVE...THE NEXT EVENT WED INTO WED NIGHT STILL HAS
A LOT OF QUESTION MARKS. MODELS STILL CANNOT COME INTO AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM MID LVL LOW COMING OUT OF TX. THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF FALLS WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND HOW MUCH OF A CHANGE TO SNOW WE GET IN THE DEFORMATION
AREA NW OF THE SFC LOW LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO
SIDE WITH HPC REASONING THAT THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS IS STILL TOO
FAR S/E WITH THE TRACK...AND THE NAM IS A BIT TOO FAR N/W. THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO...AND HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CANADIAN AND SREF RUNS.
WITH THAT SAID...WILL BRING POPS UP TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WED IN ALL
AREAS AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS UP INTO CENTRAL TN. THEN...COLD AIR
SHOULD BE DRAWN INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS UP
THE UPPER OH RVR VALLEY WED EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A CHANGE
OVER TO SOME WET SNOW LATE IN THE DAY WED OVER OUR WRN COUNTIES...
AND THEN WED NIGHT ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE THINKING IS RIGHT NOW
THAT EVEN IF WE GET A FEW HOURS OF DECENT SNOWFALL...ANY IMPACTS
WOULD BE MINOR TO NON EXISTENT DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND
SFC TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. MAIN THING WOULD BE THAT IT
COULD BE THE FIRST SNOW IN THE AIR THIS SEASON...AND EVEN THAT IS
NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THU INTO FRI...WITH LOWS WELL DOWN IN THE
20S AND HIGHS STAYING IN THE 30S UP ALONG THE I 64 CORRIDOR.
&&
.AVIATION...
KEPT MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR KCGI AND KPAH THROUGH THE 17Z TO
19Z TIME FRAME...AND THROUGH 20-21Z FOR KEVV/KOWB. MOST OF THE
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 2.0-2.5KFT AGL RANGE. THERE IS A
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT THESE CEILINGS MAY BECOME
BROKEN VERSUS OVERCAST WITH A HIGHER BROKEN CEILING...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHERN IL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SMITH
