FXUS65 KFGZ 072130
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 5000 TO
6000 FEET...WITH HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE RIM...EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATES WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN AZ AND SPREADING EASTWARD. ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 2 TO 6 INCHES
HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. AUTOMATED SITES INDICATE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 3/4 HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. AND WE'VE ONLY JUST BEGUN.
THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST WITH INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED
GENERALLY SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE INCREASED
QPF OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING IN
YAVAPAI AND NRN GILA COUNTIES.
STILL EXPECTING 1-2 FEET OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO
3 FEET POSSIBLE. THE LARGEST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES (I.E., THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES) OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...TONTO PLATEAU...AND
WHITE MTNS. LESSER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE LEEWARD OR
NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND OTHER HIGHER ELEVATION LOCALES.
CURRENT FCSTS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE PRESSURE FALL CENTER IS
COMING IN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FCSTS.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS CHANGE WILL BE LESS WIND IN THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND MORE WIND ACROSS YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES.
DO NOT THINK THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL REQUIRED IN THESE LOCATIONS...
BUT MAY HAVE TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN THE
LCR.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE
ACROSS NRN AZ THROUGH 18Z TUES. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...WITH SNOW LEVELS 5000-6000 FEET. TIL 15Z TUE...SFC WINDS
SW 15-35KT GUSTS TO 50KT. THERE WILL BE NEARLY COMPLETE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR THROUGH 10Z-12Z TUE DUE TO +SN / +RA.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN AZ AROUND 06Z TUES...WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN FIRST AT KPRC AFT 06Z TUE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT STRATUS AND LCL
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY
AZZ015-016...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
AREAS ABOVE 5000 AZZ004-006>011-018-038...
..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO NOON MST
TUESDAY AZZ017...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS UNTIL EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET AZZ005-012>14...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY
AZZ005-012>14.
&&
$$
PUBLIC..................DB
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...41
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
