FXUS62 KTAE 020751
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009
...THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS NOW BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND COASTAL FLOODING
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...AS WAS VERY WELL FORECAST...THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS DIGGING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS SPAWNED A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW NEAR THE LA COASTLINE AS
OF MIDNIGHT EST. THUS FAR...THIS LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CWA AND CORRESPONDING GROWING AREA OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THUS FAR...THE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE REMAINING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR (WITH HIGHER SFC TDS) TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO CREEP
UP NEAR THE COASTLINE...AND MESOCYCLONES ARE DEVELOPING IN THIS WARM
SECTOR...SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THESE STORMS AS
THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
RAPIDLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TODAY WILL
DOMINATE THE HEADLINES AS WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH POTENTIAL INLAND
FLOODING...COASTAL FLOODING...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS
...BATTERING SURF...AND SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST BETS ARE CLEARLY
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS MANY AREAS...
ALONG WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL HAZARDS. THE THREAT
FOR SVR WX IS MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS WE MUST DE-STABILIZE A BIT
FURTHER TO TAP INTO THE VERY HIGH BULK SHEAR...WHICH WOULD GIVE US
THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD GIVE US A SHORT LIVED BREAK IN THE WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE YET ANOTHER GULF LOW
BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR REGION WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A COLD RAIN...AS THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE
CWA IN THE COLD SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A GULF LOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE AS IT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD FROM SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS TO SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN LIFT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST CROSSING
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 00Z SUN. SATURDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER COLD RAW DAY WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO OUR EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY AND REMAINS WITH US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TO SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE THE
COLDEST TEMPS WITH LOWER TO MID 30S COMMON. THEN MIN TEMPS GRADUALLY
MODERATE TO THE MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 50S SATURDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
.AVIATION...CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS AT LEAST
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT PFN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND A LULL IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WE ENTER THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...A SQUALL LINE WILL
RACE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION FROM MID MORNING
TO MID AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL TRY TO TIME THIS CONVECTION USING TEMPO GROUPS.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS EXPECTED...WITH ALREADY A FEW SPIKES GUSTING
TO OVER GALE FORCE IN SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. FOR THIS PACKAGE...ESSENTIALLY LEFT THE HAZARD GRIDS
ALONE...EXCEPT WAS ABLE TO TRIM THE LAST 6 HRS OF THE SCA OUT OF THE
CWF AND MWW FROM 12 TO 18 UTC ON THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS TO THE
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT
NEWTON AND GENEVA IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND AT CARYVILLE IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS HEAVY RAINS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INLAND
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...IF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS MATERIALIZE FURTHER EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL RIVERS IN OUR REGION
MAY REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...SO ALL
INTERESTS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FCSTS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. SPECIFIC RIVER FORECAST INFORMATION
FOR YOUR AREA CAN BE FOUND ONLINE AT
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 71 48 63 42 55 / 100 10 0 10 40
PANAMA CITY 73 51 63 43 56 / 100 10 0 10 30
DOTHAN 70 45 61 37 53 / 100 10 0 10 20
ALBANY 70 45 62 37 53 / 100 10 0 10 30
VALDOSTA 72 49 65 40 55 / 100 20 0 10 50
CROSS CITY 76 55 69 46 60 / 100 20 0 10 50
APALACHICOLA 71 53 63 46 57 / 100 10 0 10 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING ALL ZONES.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BAKER...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...
EARLY...GRADY...LEE...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...
RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...WORTH.
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...
GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...
LEON...LIBERTY...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FRANKLIN.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON...GULF.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM
KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS
FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL
OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON
BEACH OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO
DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA
TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM
KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...BARRY
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
