FXUS63 KPAH 141736
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS...NO CHANGE TO PUBLIC SECTION
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A SFC LOW IN KANSAS...AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARCHING UP INTO IOWA AND WISCONSIN. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE FRONT INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 18Z TODAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY ABOUT
02Z OR SO. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS ARE
NOT PUMPING OUT MUCH QPF...BUT LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS...THERE IS
MINIMAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS
CONFINED TO 925MB AND BELOW. ONE HAS TO WONDER IF WE WILL SEE THE
SUN AT ALL TODAY...GIVEN THE SUCKER HOLE THAT DEVELOPED OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA YESTERDAY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL WREAK HAVOC ON
TEMPERATURES THOUGH IF IT HAPPENS. BUT TODAYS TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND BE THE WARMEST WE WILL SEE ALL WEEK.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT THOUGH WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO AT LEAST SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES. SEE NO
REASON TO MESS WITH GOING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND BRING SOME COLD AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE KEEPING THE FRIGID COLD TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE
SNOWPACK IS...WE WILL STILL BE MUCH COLDER FOR THE MID WEEK TIME
FRAME. EVEN THOUGH H85 TEMPS BARELY DROP BELOW 0 DEG C...LOOKING
UP STREAM....TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY STILL BELOW ZERO OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. THUS...WILL GO WITH THE COLDER MOS NUMBERS...WHICH LOOKS
TO BE THE MET...AND WILL PROBABLY UNDERCUT THESE NUMBERS A BIT AS
WELL. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD...AS THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER US. THAT SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR THINGS TO WARM UP
A BIT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY
THURSDAY.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE
IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THIS SFC
FRONT...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT POST
FRONTAL PRECIP...ESP FRI NIGHT AND SAT...AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. IT ADVERTISES PRECIP
CHANCES ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVE AFTER WAVE PUSHES ON
THROUGH THE AREA...AND EACH TIME...BRINGING COLDER AND COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HINTS AT THIS SIMILAR SITUATION BUT IS
NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED WITH THESE TROUGHS...AND HINTS AT SOME
MINOR PRECIP. BUT...THE GFS DOES HINT AT THE FRIGID AIR
INFILTRATING THE AREA LIKE THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WERE BREAKING UP RATHER STEADILY ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME PREVALENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY AS THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
00Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN CLEARING IS LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
