FXUS62 KMLB 290803
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
303 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...STRONG GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL INCREASE CHANCE OF STORMS AT
MIDWEEK...
CURRENT-TODAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW (W-NW) TO CALM WINDS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
OCCUPYING NORTH FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLC. THE HIGH PRESSURE
CELL WILL GRADUALLY FOCUS FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. HIGH
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD (CIRROSTRATUS) WILL HANG AROUND FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THOUGH ARE FORECAST TO BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
NEAR THE COAST AND MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODIFICATION OF THE
CURRENT DRY AIR MASS AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP
UPWARDS. MOST PLACES WILL RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS.
TONIGHT...MILDER TEMPERATURES IN STORE WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREAWIDE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME
MAINLY CALM UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MON-TUE...A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE OVER THE PENINSULA WIL
BREAK DURING THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL FL TUE WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE ASCD WITH
ARRIVAL OF FEATURE...HOWEVER POPS WL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO
LACK OF FORCING/DEEP MOISTURE AND NOT A HUGE AIRMASS CHANGE OVERALL.
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA TUE EVENING WITH SOME
UPGLIDE LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
LATE TUE.
WED-SAT...
NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS APPROACH OF ENERGETIC SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF WED. THE PRESENT CUTOFF LOW OVER WESTERN AZ IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DURING WED INTO THU
AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE AREA LATE WED/EARLY THU AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
EJECTS RAPIDLY NEWRD ACROSS THE SE STATES. A SQUALL LINE WL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF DURING THIS PERIOD.
ADVERTISED STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS (50+ KTS @ H85 AND 40+ KTS @
H925) WITH ADDED HELICITY COMPONENT WL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. LTST DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK FROM SPC INDICATING
A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE STATE AS WELL.
THE WORKWEEK WILL END WITH COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS PROVIDING LOCAL VEERING OF WIND TO STABLE NORTHEAST
FLOW FRI-SATURDAY. ADDED A SLIGHT POP SUNDAY AS SE WINDS AND A
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MAY CREATE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THRU TONIGHT. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF OF THE NORTH FLORIDA
COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHT FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS BECOMING ONSHORE LATER IN THE DAY. SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS. SWELL HEIGHT OF AROUND 2 FT WITH A WAVE PERIOD AROUND 6
SECONDS.
OFFSHORE FLOW COMPONENT WITH FETCH LIMITED SEAS WILL ALLOW PLEASANT
BOATING CONDITIONS MON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH
A INCREASE IN SPEED TUE BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE.
HEADLINES WILL BECOME LIKELY BY WED AND INTO THU.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...EARLY MORNING LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW (W-NW)
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME E-SE WHILE REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. AREAS OVER
THE INTERIOR MAY STILL SEE AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 35% OR
BELOW FOR 1-3 HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY BEGINS TO MODERATE WITH
HIGHER TEMPERATURES & DEWPOINTS. NO OTHER CONCERNS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 50 76 56 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 75 51 77 55 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 75 54 79 56 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 76 53 80 55 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 74 52 77 55 / 0 0 10 10
SFB 77 52 78 56 / 0 0 10 10
ORL 75 52 78 58 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 77 53 80 55 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
