FXUS61 KLWX 101614
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1114 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY...AND LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING. HAVE CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS FOR THE EXTREME
WESTERN CWFA.
THE MAX T GRID WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TODAY...AS TEMPS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL ONLY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO/REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...THEN BEGIN FALLING. TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY
CONTINUE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...BEFORE FALLING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WIND THE ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SW
ZONES. NOT SEEING ANY GUSTS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE A DECREASING WIND GUST TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR BLUSTERY AND COLD
CONDITIONS.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH HAS BEEN MODIFIED...
BUT IT EASILY WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. TEMPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
THIS AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS DESPITE THE
WINDS HOLDING UP. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPS AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS AROUND -10F. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY COLD...DRY AIR RMNS IN MID-ATLC RGN THRU SAT MRNG. HIPRES
MOVES OFF THE ATLC COAST SAT AS ZONAL FLOW HELPS INDUCE A RETURN
TO SLY LLVL FLOW.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROF EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AIDS IN DVLPMT OF
COASTAL LOPRES NEAR CAROLINAS SAT EVE. PORTIONS OF FCST AREA XPCD
TO BE GRAZED BY A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW SAT NGT...WHICH SHUD
TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUN.
ANOTHER AMS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN WILL ARRIVE BY TUE...WITH SUSTAINED
UPSLP FLOW XPCD TO YIELD SNOW ALONG WRN SLOPES OF ALLEGHENY FRONT
DURG MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.
WINDS DECR FRI NGT AS HIPRES BUILDS. PCPN PSBL SAT NGT-SUN BFR
ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC ORIGIN AMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS XPCD TUE
AND WED.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS ON THE WATERS ARE ALL SCA CRITERIA. GUSTS IN THE
NORTHERN BAY ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AND AVERAGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN BAY...BUT WILL KEEP 30 KT GUSTS IN THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE TONIGHT...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADZY CONTS TMW. SUCH CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO SAT
AND DVLP AGAIN MON.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LISTEMAA
