FXUS63 KPAH 111952
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
152 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 8 TO 10
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY UPON SSW WINDS. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUDS STEADILY HEADING NE ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING THIS WELL. AND THE FLOW AT H8 PER PROFILER DATA
SHOWS A SSW FLOW THAT MAY ALLOW IT TO ADVECT FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST THAN WHAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL REFLECT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS A RESULT...BUT NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY DUE
TO THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.

LIGHT RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY NOW PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AS
THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW TROP MOISTURE MORE IN SYNC. THE GFS IS
STILL TRENDING FARTHER SE...AND HAVE BEST CHANCES ACROSS WEST
KY...WITH THE NAM MORE BROAD BRUSH. NAM IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
WITH QPF TOO. TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...AS WE TRY TO RID THIS
RATHER STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASS AND HIGH THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL BRING IN POPS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST KENTUCKY. WILL THEN SHIFT BEST 
POPS EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT.

AFTER A RESPITE SUNDAY...PERHAPS SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
MORNING LIGHT DRIZZLE...SHOULD SEE QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THEN A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MONDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A LOW POP EVENT
WITH THIS FRONT...FOR RAIN...FOLLOWED BY OUR NEXT BLAST OF
COLD CANADIAN AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. IT SHOULD BE DRY WHILE THE COLD AIR MASS
IS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGHOUT THE VALID TIME AT ALL TAF SITES. 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$