FXUS64 KFWD 041840 AAD
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.UPDATE...
HAVE ENDED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW ALONG/NW OF A LAMPASAS TO WACO
LINE...AS CEILINGS ARE RISING AND 15 MILE-WIDE OR SO BAND OF MODERATE
SNOW HAS MOVE ESE OF THIS AREA. ONLY RECEIVED ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD
OF AN INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS WITH NO ROAD PROBLEMS. A FEW FLURRIES
MAY STILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HRS. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY OVER SE COUNTIES AND
MAKE A DECISION THEN WHETHER TO CANCEL OR CONTINUE UNTIL EXPIRATION
TIME.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ESPECIALLY FROM THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS AND NORTHWARD. FARTHER
SOUTH AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. WILL SHOW TEMPO 3SM -SN AT WACO THROUGH ABOUT 21Z AS BAND
OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SNOW MOVES THROUGH.
S/W MOVING THROUGH TX NOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIP COMING TO AN END AND SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY EARLY MORNING AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
91/DUNN
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
FRONTOGENETICAL/MID LVL ENHANCEMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR SOUTH OF
I-20...BUT STILL AWAITING LOW LEVEL DRY/COLD AIR TO SATURATE DOWN
AND EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT HAPPENING AND SOME SNOWFALL
UNDER AN INCH TO OCCUR OVER THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA
OVER THE SRN THIRD OF NORTH TX BY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SO
FAR...NOTHING BUT A FEW FLURRIES OCCURRING.
OTHERWISE...MAIN UPDATE REASONING WAS TO RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER
THE ADVISORY AREA PER CURRENT OBSERVATION REASONING...BUT DON'T
EXPECT THEM TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 30S. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
OVER THE N/NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP TEMPS RISING TO
AROUND 40...OR LOWER 40S WITH SOME INSOLATION...DESPITE DEPTH OF
CURRENT/COLD POLAR AIRMASS.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE
FALLING SNOW AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC HAS DEPICTED MID LEVEL PRECIP
ALL NIGHT...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SNOW IS ONLY
REACHING THE GROUND UNDER THE MORE ENHANCED ACTIVITY /OVER
MIDLAND AND NOW SAN ANGELO/. FOR NORTH TEXAS...CURRENT RADAR ECHOES
INDICATE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE STILL TOO DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS FOR ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WE EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS
TO SATURATE A BIT AND WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN RADAR ECHOES
BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND COMANCHE. WE HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH
WITH POPS TODAY. HAVE EVEN PULLED AREA OF FLURRIES FROM THE RED
RIVER...WITH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT
ISOLATED FLURRIES THIS MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY FLURRIES
WILL BE OUT OF AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE DRY AIR THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. MOST LOCATIONS
FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO PALESTINE WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND HALF AN
INCH...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS /ALONG THE FAR CWA BORDER...
ESPECIALLY FROM LAMPASAS TO KILLEEN/ HAVING THE OPPORTUNITY TO
APPROACH ONE INCH ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD. FOR
TODAY...READINGS WILL MOVE LITTLE FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ALONG THE RED RIVER...TO THE
LOW TO MID 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AREA WIDE...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA/. WITH DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEAR SKIES...THE SET UP IS CONDUCIVE FOR PLUNGING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR RECORD READINGS. THE RECORD LOW FOR DEC
5 AT DFW IS 18 DEGREES SET IN 1950 AND 22 DEGREES AT WACO SET IN
1950. THE METROPLEX MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH FOR A RECORD LOW...
BUT WACO WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE BALLPARK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TOMORROW INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY MODERATE FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS LESS
LIKELY WITH TODAYS MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UPPER LOW...WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES...AND MOVES THE PRECIP OUT
WELL BEFORE ANY COLDER TEMPS APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF
ONLY LIQUID PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.
SCHULTZ
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND MAY APPROACH RECORD
READINGS.
RECORD LOWS FOR DECEMBER 5...
DALLAS/FORT WORTH...18 DEGREES SET IN 1950
WACO................22 DEGREES SET IN 1950
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 23 49 38 50 37 / 5 0 5 10 5
WACO, TX 24 50 38 54 38 / 10 0 5 20 5
PARIS, TX 21 49 32 44 35 / 5 0 5 20 20
DENTON, TX 23 51 36 50 33 / 5 0 5 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 23 49 36 46 35 / 5 0 5 20 10
DALLAS, TX 24 50 40 50 38 / 5 0 5 20 10
TERRELL, TX 23 51 38 47 38 / 10 0 5 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 24 50 38 53 42 / 10 0 5 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 24 52 38 54 41 / 10 0 5 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ147-
148-158-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
91/05
