FXUS61 KCLE 290830
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH SUN WILL WE GET...AND WHEN
WILL THE RAIN REACH THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ONLY CIRRUS OVER THE AREA
WITH STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IN THE STRATUS TODAY. IN FACT SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAV FOR TODAYS HIGHS.
ALMOST NO PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM NOW...BUT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING SOME RAIN TOWARD EVENING ACROSS NW OH. SO WENT LIKELY NW
OH LATE. DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR AKRON-YNG AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL RAIN BEFORE 09Z...BUT WILL BE A
PERIOD EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF MINUS 5C TO MINUS
6C...THAT THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE SNOW. HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL BE EARLY...WILL HAVE STEADY OR EVEN FALLING TEMPS TO
DEAL WITH ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.
FORECAST QUESTION FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS HOW FAST WILL THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVE AND WHAT DIRECTION WILL THE WINDS BE FROM. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE
WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST. GFS MOVES NEXT FRONT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z TUES...WHILE
THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO ECMWF TIMING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THAT SAID LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BY TUESDAY EVENING AS INVERSION DROPS
AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO FORM A CONSENSUS THAT KEEPS
THE MAIN ENERGY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. STILL SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
BIT OF MOISTURE WORK UP THIS WAY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT
WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOPING. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NW PA...ESPECIALLY ERIE COUNTY WITH A WSW
FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT ABOVE AVERAGE BUT IT WILL BE
THE LAST DAY THIS OCCURS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY FRIDAY SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SPILL ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 30S INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PROBLEM FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS WILL STRATUS AND OR FOG
DEVELOP. ANY FOG THAT WILL DEVELOP WILL BE MVFR BECAUSE THERE WILL
BE SOME WIND AND THE BR WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AT MOST TAF SITES.
THE 00Z RUN OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BACK OFF ON THE THREAT OF
STRATUS AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE ONLY
ONE HINTING AT SOME STRATUS YET. THE SREF HAS BACKED WAY OFF
EXCEPT AT TOL. BASED ON THE DTX AND PIT SOUNDINGS THERE IS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 1000 FEET. WITH THIS NEW INFO KEPT THE
STRATUS AT TOL AND WENT SCT STRATOCUMULUS AT CLE...ERI AND YNG.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
VERY CLOSELY.
IF THE STRATUS DOES DEVELOP WILL IT BURN OFF...IT MAY NOT...IT MAY
JUST GRADUALLY RISE TO NEAR 3000 FEET. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOWERING TO MVFR WHEN THE RAIN
STARTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EARLY
TUE. VFR WILL RETURN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. NON VFR DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WITH W TO
NW WINDS INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. LOOKS AS IF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SPILLING ACROSS LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN
INCREASE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. MORE ON THIS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MULLEN
