FXUS62 KTBW 251411
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
911 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS REACHES
FROM LEVY SOUTH...TO 20 MILES OFF THE PINELLAS COAST...TO 60-80 MILES
OFF FORT MYERS. CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE COOLER
COASTAL WATERS...DROPPED THE TORNADO WATCH IN THE NORTH JUST
BEFORE 8 AM...WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN OVER LEVY AND
FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND MUCH OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY IS SLIDING EAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE
FRONT AND ITS WIND SHIFT TRAILING BEHIND. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BUT
MAY DO A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE IF CLEARING BEGINS SOONER. 

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG CONVECTION 
OVER THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC 
FORCING AND RELATED MID-UPR LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE 
AREA.  COOLER NEARSHORE GULF WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED THE 
LOW-LEVEL STABILITY AND THEREFORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE.  
EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING 
AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FURTHER WEAKENING AND 
PROGRESSING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.  SOUTHEAST-SOUTH FLOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST...AND PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS 
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING 
FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM TPA/PIE AND SOUTHWARD TO SRQ 
AND FMY/RSW.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE LET THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING EXPIRE AT 9 AM BUT WILL
REPLACE WITH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTH FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO HANDLE ANY GUSTS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT 
FORECAST WILL GO OUT AROUND 930 WITH ONLY SOME MINOR WIND
DIRECTION ADJUSTMENTS. 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BONITA 
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON 
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER 
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...09/RUDE
AVIATION...10/LAMARRE