FXUS63 KMPX 101751
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...

COLDEST PART OF THE THIS BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH A COUPLE WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH. ONE JUST ABOUT TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN WI AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN ND. THE IDEA OF A FEW
FLURRIES WITH THE SECOND WAVE STILL LOOKS GOOD..PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. JUST A FEW SITES AT WIND CHILL ADVSY CRITERIA TO OUR
WEST BUT WIND SPEEDS COMING DOWN. WILL KEEP THE ADVSY GOING UNTIL
10 AM. WITH SOME CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO THE AREA...WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO NAM GUIDANCE VALUES AND MAYBE A LITTLE LOWER IN SPOTS.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN AS WELL.

SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON A MODERATING TREND
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY. THERE COULD BE RISING TEMPS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
NOT PUT TOO MUCH DETAIL IN HOURLIES AT THIS POINT. THERE A COUPLE OF
SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS TREND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TYPE
PRECIP BUT WILL KEEP IT SNOW FOR NOW. RAISED POPS A LITTLE WITH
THE MREF PLUMES SHOWING A REASONABLE SIGNAL OF LIGHT QPF. HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE AMONG GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE AREA FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES IS
IN THE HIGHEST AREA OF VARIABILITY...KIND OF A BATTLE GROUND FOR
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR. IT DOES SEEM LIKE
ANOTHER PLUNGE MAY OCCUR ABOUT TUESDAY BEHIND PACIFIC SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

UPPER LEVEL TWISTING SHORT WAVE PROMOTING A CORRIDOR OF ASCENT
AND 2 TO 4 KFT CIGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. SCATTERED FLURRIES ALSO FOUND IN THIS AREA.
LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE SNOWFLAKE TYPE AND WEAK
INTENSITY...VISIBILITIES ONLY BRIEFLY TAPPING THE MVFR RANGE. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE STARTS
OVERNIGHT...SOME 3-6 KFT CIGS EXPECTED IN ERN MN AND WRN WI. SFC 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE W THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF
THE TAF THEN BACK AROUND TOMORROW MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

KAXN...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTN BUT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF. MAY BE SOME MVFR CLOUDS JUST
BEYOND TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT APPROACHING WAVE.

KSTC...BROKEN 2.5-4 KFT STRATOCU EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KRWF...MAIN AXIS OF FORCING FOR FLURRIES HAS JUST MOVED EAST OF
KRWF. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE OF THOSE...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES KMSP...FLURRIES EXPECTED TO
GET AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE AIRFIELD. CIGS LIKELY TO BRIEFLY DROP TO
2.5-3.5 KFT...THEN HANG AROUND 4 KFT INTO THIS EVE.

KRNH...AIRPORT LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO MISS THE FLURRY
ACTION HOWEVER SHOULD SEE SOME NEAR OR MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVE.

KEAU...QUIET AFTN EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS THIS
EVE AS WAVE APPROACHES. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JPR/MTF