FXUS61 KRLX 082008
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING LOW PRESSURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONG GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60KTS TO 70KTS AT 85H
AND 70H WILL BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SW VIRGINIA AND HIGH WIND ADVISORY
ELSEWHERE DUE TO ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING ATTM.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET..FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET CHANGING ANY FREEZING RAIN TO ALL RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUSION WHIPS THROUGH WED AS DEEPENING LOW CENTER TRAVERSES THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS TAKES THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT...BUT SHOWERS
IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN ON STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS.
LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD THE FASTER GFS TIMING GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NEARLY ALIGNED FLOW AND GOOD MIXING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF 50KT H85 FLOW TO
BE REALIZED AS GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON. THUS
THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WED. THESE STRONG WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED NT THROUGH THU NT.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD IS DRY ALTHOUGH COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SAILS ACROSS THE AREA FRI. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...DIVERGENT SW
FLOW ALOFT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE S LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS LATE FRI NT...WITH LIGHT SNOW A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY BY
DAWN SAT ACROSS S PORTION OF AREA.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING...COLD ADVECTION SETS IN JUST QUICKLY ENOUGH
FOR NON DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURE WED AFTN WITH A STEADY DROP
THROUGH THU NT. ROLLED BELOW THE GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING
THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BRINGING A VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS UNDER H8 WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS
THU NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES SPREADING FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...DECREASING
BY FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EAST AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA...TO BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...FRI NIGHT...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. PCPN EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW FRI
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN AND MIX SAT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW SAT NIGHT
AREA WIDE. GOING A BIT FASTER THAN THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION...MORE LIKE THE ECMWF OLDER SOLUTION. STICK CLOSER TO HPC
TEMPERATURES TWEAKING DOWN FEW DEGREES LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SW U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE WARM FRONT THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...HEAVY AT TIMES...LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z TO 20Z...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 23Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE...AND GUST UP TO 60
KTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN 06Z WED ON. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WED. MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 14Z TO 18Z WED WITH
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING.
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KTS...AND UP TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>032-039-040.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ033>038-046-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ/JS
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS
