FXUS64 KLCH 291008
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
408 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...AREA ENTERING INTO A WARMING AND MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS.
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHAPING US NICELY. WARMING SOUTHERLIES
TO USHER IN SOME VERY MILD LATE NOVEMBER AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE. UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK.
MODELS IN THE SHORT-TERM SHOWING EXCELLENT CONTINUITY IN ADVANCING
AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS FRONT INTO THE LAKES AREA LATER
TONIGHT...AND PUNCHING FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
MOISTURE AND RAINS SHOWING UP AS PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL SO HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAINS CHANCES THEN
DIMINISH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY SETTLES WELL INTO THE GULF
WATERS.
RAINS RETURN AGAIN TUESDAY AS WEST GULF LOW DEVELOPS ALONG TAIL
END OF FRONT ADVANCING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME SHOWING SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT
FASTER AND WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND TRENDED MORE TOWARD A GFS SOLUTION. SHOULD THE EC MODEL
PROVE CORRECT...HEAVIER RAINS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.
RAINS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY...ENDING BY THURSDAY AS SYSTEM
EXITS NORTHEAST. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKING DRY AND COOL AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED. GFS SUGGESTING ANOTHER FROPA
WITH RAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. AT THIS TIME WILL JUST MAINTAIN LOW END
POPS DUE TO EXTENT OF UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE THROUGH
THE PLAINS...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ADVANCE DEEP INTO THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY...WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
WINDS...ROUGH SEAS AND RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND ADVANCES NORTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 77 61 65 48 58 / 10 50 80 50 70
KBPT 78 61 67 49 55 / 10 70 80 50 70
KAEX 74 57 60 44 53 / 20 70 80 30 60
KLFT 75 60 64 49 57 / 10 30 80 50 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MARCOTTE
