FXUS61 KBOX 070857
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY...THEN A LARGE STORM
WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND WIND. COLDER THAN NORMAL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ENOUGH WAA-DRIVEN ASCENT MAY DEVELOP TO ALLOW FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND CROSS THE INTERIOR. AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE
COAST LATER IN THE DAY...WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY AID THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE MASS. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WE EXPECT THAT MOS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TOO HIGH ONCE AGAIN TODAY DUE TO SNOW COVER AND LITTLE MIXING.
THEREFORE...WE CUT BACK ON MOS A BIT. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS SHOULD MOVE OUT TO SEA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
OVERALL...AN UNEVENTFUL DAY IS IN STORE WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MAX TEMPS AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN UP AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES...THEREFORE WINDS WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER NEW ENG TUE EVENING THEN RETREAT
NE AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. NAM IS SLOW
OUTLIER WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND ALL OTHER MODELS ARE QUICKER MOVING
PRECIP INTO AT LEAST W ZONES LATE TUE NIGHT. DISCOUNTED THE NAM AS
FASTER SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH APPROACHING LLJ AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS WHICH LOOK
GOOD FOR TIMING. COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TUE NIGHT TO
BEGIN AS SNOW. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE INCREASING
ELY FLOW WILL QUICKLY WARM BL WITH MAINLY RAIN OR MIX RAIN/SNOW.
SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT SNE DURING WED WITH HEAVY PRECIP AND
STRONG WIND ALONG THE COAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INTENSE
PRIMARY LOW MOVING NE INTO THE GT LAKES WED WITH SECONDARY WAVE
DEVELOPING ON THE WARM FRONT AND LIFTING NWD INTO SNE. VERY STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE NWD INTO THE REGION AND QPF 1-2"
POSSIBLE. COLD AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE IN THE INTERIOR AS STRONG
OMEGA MOVES IN SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY INTERIOR
BEFORE LOW LEVEL WARMING CHANGES THE PRECIP TO RAIN WITH S NH LAST
TO SEE CHANGEOVER EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
THERMAL PROFILE AND BEST SNOW GROWTH TARGETS AREA FROM ORH NORTHWARD
THROUGH S NH FOR HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS REGION
COULD END UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL BUT HIGH PROB OF AT
LEAST ADVSY SNOWFALL. LIGHTER SNOW ACCUM WITH LOW PROB OF ADVSY
SNOWFALL EXPECTED REST OF INTERIOR FROM BOS SUBURBS THROUGH NW RI
AND N CT. LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED ALONG AND SE OF BOS-PVD.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ICE IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE TRANSITION
FROM SNOW TO RAIN AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING.
WIND IS THE OTHER CONCERN FOR WED AS STRONG EASTERLY LLJ LIFTS
NORTHWARD WITH VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE FROM CAPE COD NORTHWARD ALONG E COASTAL MA AND WIND ADVSY
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. LOW PROB OF HWW OUTER CAPE.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE WED AND ESPECIALLY WED EVENING AS OCCLUSION
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND DRY SLOT MOVES IN ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT TO
THE SW.
THU...GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
LOWERED MEX GUIDANCE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BASED ON 2M TEMPS. A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE NW HIGHER TERRAIN.
COLD AND BLUSTERY FRI AND SAT WITH GUSTY W WINDS CONTINUING. 850 MB
TEMPS ARUND -16C SO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WIND
CHILLS WILL BECOME A FACTOR. A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FROM TIME TO TIME BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.
SUN...EC HAS CLOSE CALL WITH OCEAN STORM TO THE SOUTH AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION. GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. ISOLD/SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE.
VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS
DURING THE EVENING. CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUE NIGHT...MAY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LATE IN DEVELOPING SNOW W ZONES
WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...WIDEPSREAD IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
INTERIOR AND HEAVY RAIN COAST. STRONG E WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT STRONG WEST WINDS LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT
IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON MOST MARINE ZONES. LOW PROB FOR THE
REAPPEARANCE OF MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE SOUTH COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EAST WINDS INCREASING LATE TUE NIGHT AND STRONG GALES LIKELY DURING
WED...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS AS STRONG LLJ LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROB OF STORM FORCE WINDS WED AFTERNOON OVER
OUTER WATERS NORTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST WED
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG GRADIENT AND CAA. WINDS INITIALLY
BECOME SW WED EVENING BEHIND OCCLUSION BEFORE TURNING MROE WEST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT FINALLY HIT THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH 2009. THE LOW THIS SUNDAY MORNING
WAS 31 DEGREES AT 804 AM. IN 137 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING...THIS IS
THE LONGEST BOSTON HAS EVER WAITED TO GET DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK
DURING THE AUTUMN/WINTER. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS DECEMBER 2ND 1975.
THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO HAVING THE 6TH WARMEST NOVEMBER ON
RECORD...THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT...AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LUCK.
ON AVERAGE...THE FIRST FREEZE TYPICALLY OCCURS THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
GLOUCESTER NWR TRANSMITTER IS OFF THE AIR. RTS UNKNOWN.
WE ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. JOHNSTON/PROVIDENCE NWR TRANSMITTER
IS BACK ON THE AIR BUT ON LOW POWER...SOME SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNABLE TO RECEIVE THE SIGNAL. MORE MAINTENANCE WILL BE DONE ON
MONDAY TO RETURN THIS STATION TO FULL POWER. IN THE MEANTIME...PLEASE
SEE OUR WEBSITE... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR WEATHER INFORMATION.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
