FXUS64 KOHX 060251 CCA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
848 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009

.UPDATE...
PRESENTLY...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO LOWER 20S CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AT ALL LOCATIONS. SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BROAD AREA OF PATCHES OF CI NOTED W OF
MS RIVER. 00Z KOHX SOUNDING VERY DRY WITH PCPN WATER VALUES ONLY 
0.10 INCH. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT CI TO OVERSPREAD 
REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH MOCLR WORDING. LATEST SHORT TERM
/NAM MOS GUIDANCE PREDICTING LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IF CI MOVING INTO REGION PROVIDED A DENSE OVC FOR THE
ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WOULD TEND TO RAISE TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. BUT WITH CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...BELIEVE LOWS ARE STILL
POSSIBLY WITHIN REACH.

THUS...ONLY UPDATE TO FORECAST WILL BE TO GO WITH CALM WINDS 
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING A SPS DEALING WITH 
COLD WEATHER SAFETY FACTS AS LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES 
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...WE WILL NOT BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS...
NASHVILLE 11 DEGREES IN 1937 AND CROSSVILLE 7 IN 1977.  
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/ 

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 21Z SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST
TO OUR WEST, WITH SKIES HAVING GONE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
30'S. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH MOST DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS.

WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES, WE SHOULD
SEE FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND FOR THIS REASON, HAVE GONE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

AM EXPECTING A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THAT
WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30'S, WE COULD
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.

NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL HIT US TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP
LOW COMES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SLIDES A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31/JBW