FXUS62 KMHX 262014
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGH
CLOUDS OVRNGT. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
BREAKUP AS WELL SO GENERALLY A MOCLDY SKY EXPECTED TNGT. CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK CAA YIELDS NEAR CLIMO NORMAL LOWS TNGT...MAINLY
MID 30S INLAND TO LOW-MID 40S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SWATH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE AS MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE WSW TMRW. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT DURING THE MORN SO MAY FINALLY SEE SOME CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTN. HIGHS SUNDAY AVERAGE A BIT ABV NORMAL INLAND
(NEAR 60F) BUT A LTL COOLER NEAR BAY/OCEAN (MID 50S).
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER CUTOFF MOVING THRU
THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ASSOCD LOW LEVEL CAA SURGES WILL BEGIN A DROP OFF IN TEMPS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THRU MIDWEEK. THE SHORT WAVES WILL LACK DEEP
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN OCCASIONAL PASSING CLOUDS SUN NIGHT
AND MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE UNDER DEEP DRY NW
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS FCST PERIOD. LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGHS TUE AND WED
STRUGGLE ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
STORMY PERIOD ON TAP FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US AND A SUPPRESSED SURFACE STORM TRACK
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL FOLLOW THIS TRACK AND BRING A THREAT
FOR RAIN/WINDS TO EASTERN NC BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
STORM TRACK EXPECTED ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST IT WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR AN ALL LIQUID EVENT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO OR MIX
WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING. IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL
TAKE SHAPE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
COOL/DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 12K FT FROM NEAR THE
I-95 CORRIDOR TO NEAR THE PAMLICO SOUND. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE W AND GUIDANCE APPEARS ON TRACK BRINGING A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 22-00Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE W ALTHOUGH A STRONG UPPER JET WILL BRING A
THICK VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT BUT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. VFR WILL CONT THOUGH MID WEEK AS ATMS
REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE W
THROUGH EARLY SUN. NW WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUN MORNING..THEN WILL SHIFT TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SWAN/WAVEWATCH CONTINUE TO BE UNDERDONE
BY 2-4 FT SO HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THAN MODELS THROUGH SUN MORNING.
SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 9 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN WATERS AND 5
TO 9 FT ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA S OF OCRACOKE INLET BY SUN AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT CHANGE
SCA HEADLINES HERE. SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER
AS SW/WLY FLOW QUICKLY INCREASES LATE WED EVE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SWLY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WLY AFTER FROPA EARLY MON WITH A STRONGER CAA
SURGE FROM 25-30 KT EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ALL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING. SINCE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA IN THE SOUND
UNTIL LATE 3RD PERIOD WILL DEFER ISSUING HEADLINES TO THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE WATERS N OF OCRACOKE INLET NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BEFORE STRONGER FLOW DEVELOPS SO WILL KEEP
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACTUALLY EXTENDED THE SCA TO MID DAY WED WITH
SEAS AOA 6 FT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME. EYES WILL THEN SHIFT THE
NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM PROGGED TO AFFECT THE WATERS ON THU. MODELS
OFFERING SLIGHTLY VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
