FXUS63 KLMK 251052
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
552 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

LOW PRESSURE NEAR KEOKUK IOWA AT 12Z WILL MOVE ONLY TO NEAR FT DODGE 
IOWA BY THIS EVENING AND THEN RIGHT BACK TO SOUTHERN IOWA BY 
SATURDAY MORNING AS IT RESPONDS TO THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT OF UPPER 
LOWS PINWHEELING AROUND EACH OTHER HIGH ABOVE THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY. MUCH OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE 
EXITED THE LMK CWFA BY 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED LEFT-OVER 
SHOWERS ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE 
REST OF THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY OTHER THAN 
PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS. DRY 
WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET 
SQUEEZED OUT OF LOW CLOUDS SWEEPING INTO THE REGION FROM THE 
NORTHWEST.

WINDS TODAY WILL LIKELY NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER 
IT WILL STILL BE A PLENTY WINDY DAY SO WILL LET THE HEADLINE RIDE 
FOR NOW. ALSO...OFFICES TO THE EAST AND WEST ARE PLANNING ON 
CONTINUING THEIR RESPECTIVE HEADLINES...SO KEEPING OURS WILL PUT US 
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. DAY SHIFT CAN CANCEL THE 
ADVISORY EARLY IF WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AT SUNRISE. THE MERCURY WILL 
THEN TUMBLE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND 
BOTTOM OUT TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

THANKS TO PAH FOR COORD.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY - THURSDAY)...

SATURDAY - MONDAY...

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
REGION...WE/LL SEE FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SAT-MON.  THE BEST 
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW 
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST FORCING VORTICITY NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 
OUR AREA.  WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OVER OUR NORTHERN 
FORECAST AREA OUT OF THIS WAVE.  WE/LL GO BACK TO FLURRIES FOR 
MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY DRYING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES 
WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE 
IN THE 20S FOR THE MOST PART.  AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...THE COLDEST DAY 
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE SOME SNOW COVER ON THE 
GROUND FROM SUNDAY/S WAVE.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.  THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 
IS AS FOLLOWS:

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...

THE NEXT WORK WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY 
COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SLOW "WARM-UP" WILL TAKE 
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS WED AND THURS IN THE LOW 40S SOUTH 
AND UPPER 30S NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WSWRLY...WITH A 
WEAK SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING 
CLOUDY SKIES TO OUR SRN CWA. BY THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHING WILL 
AFFECT THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY THIS FAR SOUTH THURSDAY-THURSDAY 
NIGHT. THIS COULD GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA...SO HAVE 
INSERTED THIS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT'S GRIDS. OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE A 
MOSTLY DRY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR PILOTS THIS TAF PERIOD 
AS A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MISSOURI TO IOWA. 
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AND WILL REMAIN 
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE. AREA VWP/S AND ACARS/AMDAR 
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WINDS THROUGH 2000 FT ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO 
DECREASE SO WILL LET THE LLWS IN THE TAFS END AT 12Z.

CEILINGS THIS MORNING AMONG SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FLIRT BETWEEN 
HIGH-END MVFR AND LOW-END VFR. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING VFR 
CIGS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........AML
AVIATION..........13