FXUS61 KGYX 251937
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
235 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A MID ATLANTIC STORM ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF...BUT COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES OR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE (SNIZLE?). NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/WINDS WERE
POPULATED WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET DATA AND POPS WERE A BLEND OF
MAV/CURRENT FORECAST DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER WESTERN F/A (CT RIVER VLY) WHERE YOU
MIGHT SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF BY LATE DAY. ANY PTYPE
WOULD BE MOSTLY OF THE FRZN VARIETY IN THE AM AND FRZN/LIQUID IN THE PM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INTERESTING SETUP SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALLOWS FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT DURNIG THE EVENING HOURS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
AT THE ONSET...THERE MAY BE THE REMAINS OF A COASTAL FRONT...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...EVEN TO THE COASTLINE. IN
FACT...WENT WITH A COMPROMISE OF MET AND THE "TOO COLD" MAV
SOLUTION. DID NOT USE DIURNAL TOOL FOR THIS SOLUTION AS TEMPS
LIKELY TO SLOW RISE DURING THE NIGHT.
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAINING AS MOSTLY SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A LIGHT MIX IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THIS COULD BE AN ADVISORY
TYPE SITUATION THAT LATER MODEL RUNS AND SURFACE/UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS WILL BETTER DEFINE LATER TONIGHT.
WITH MODEST MIXING...PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE FOR OF RAIN...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A COUPLE HOLDOUTS OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHERN MTNS IN SOMERSET COUNTY.
MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE GFS SUGGESTS QUICK MOVING
SURFACE WAVE RIDES JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND TIGHT GRADIENT OF WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW BACKS TO THE COASTLINE.
BACK TO THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG ARTIC FRONT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED SQUALL WITH THIS STRONG FRONT.
QUIET THEREAFTER...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME DISORGANIZED
OVERUNNING PRECIPITATION THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY MVFR TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST) SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SOUTH ON MONDAY IN A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. STRONG NW WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH A POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TONIGHT AND FOR
SEAS/WIND FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT
BIG SHOT OF GRADIENT WINDS ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM EST SUNDA FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
