FXUS65 KLKN 072235
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 PM PST MON DEC 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
TONIGHT. IN THE NORTH...SNOW WILL DECREASE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVERGENCE ZONE 
ALONG WITH A 300/700MB DIVERGENCE/CONVERGENCE COUPLET LIES FROM
CENTRAL LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES TO ELKO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
OF DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THEREFORE WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH 06Z AND SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH 12Z. TROF AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY MORNING
FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES EASTERN 
ZONES. WITH SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES MAY NOT EVEN REACH INTO THE
20S IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH MIGHT BRING ENOUGH CLOUD COVER WITH IT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT. STILL MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 
WILL OFFER A REPRIEVE FROM TODAY'S ACTIVE WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. STRONG NORTHERLY 
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF 
COLD TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND IN 
MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND SKIES AT LEAST 
PARTIALLY CLEARING...EXPECTING LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW ZERO IN 
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS OF EASTERN NV AND PROBABLY DROPPING BELOW 
MINUS 10 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL 
BY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME MODERATION OF TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECTING 
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN BELOW NORMAL. 

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECTING AN 
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO UNFOLD. THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES 
IN THE MODELS AS TO JUST HOW THINGS WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...ALL 
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DECENT PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND SO 
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING. AS SUCH...HAVE CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER 
THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE 
INITIAL PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. 
1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE CRITICAL 
THRESHOLD FOR SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO MOST OF WHAT FALLS SHOULD 
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE VALLEYS BELOW 5000 FEET WHICH 
COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. DUE TO THE INFLUX OF THIS MARITIME 
AIR TEMPS WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND. DETAILS ON JUST 
HOW MUCH SNOW WE CAN EXPECT ACROSS OUR CWA WILL HOPEFULLY BECOME 
CLEARER IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
&&

.AVIATION...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO MUCH THE 
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT KWMC BY EARLY 
EVENING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. KEKO WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW 
THROUGH 06Z WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SNOW WILL 
DEVELOP AT KTPH AND KELY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS 
WILL BE COMMON AT THESE TWO TERMINALS AS WELL.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL
10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN NYE 
COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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