FXUS61 KBTV 300922
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY. AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. LATEST RADAR SHOWING RAIN TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...SO A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN STILL
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLOMB A FEW DEGREES OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...SO ANY FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH. COLD
FRONT ASSOCD WITH THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING SEWRD ACRS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO SOME SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHWRS BY
18Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIR TRRN ZONES. ANY SNOW ACCUM TDY WILL
BE LIGHT...MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE AREA THRU 18Z...WITH HIGHEST POPS EAST.
PCPN CHANCES DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PM AS LLVLS DRY OUT.
DIFFICULT MAX TEMP FCST...AS SOME AREAS ARE ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS
ATTM. EXPECT WRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA TO SEE STEADY OR EVEN
FALLING TEMPS...WHILE EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SOME THIS
MORNING BEFORE FALLING BACK A BIT THIS PM AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO
BTWN -6 AND -8 C.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLRNG TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN THE ADRNDKS. SFC RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO WEAKENING SHRTWV IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL BE MOVG ACRS
THE RGN. MSTR LIMITED...BUT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS AND A CHC OF
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN ZONES. WITH DEPARTURE OF THIS
SHRTWV TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE
TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE REGION WED NITE INTO THURS. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WED NITE AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BTWN MODELS AS TO THE
EXACT TRACK...BUT THEY ALL AGREE IT WILL BE INLAND...WITH THE
RESULT BEING A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
PCPN TO OVERSPREAD FA FROM SW TO NE WED NITE. IT IS PSBL THAT IT
MAY BEGIN AS A MIX...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREENS. BUT AS WARMER
AIR STREAMS IN AT ALL LEVELS...ANY MIX SHUD BE BRIEF. IMPRESSIVE
INFLUX OF MSTR INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS EVIDENCED
BY PW'S CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN RECENT
RAIN EVENT. ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
ON WRN SLOPES OF GREENS DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.
AS THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHWRS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
DURING THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT UPPER TROUGH TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHRTWVS MOVING THRU
THE UPPER FLOW. EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD AND A CHC
OF SNOW SHWRS AT TIMES..BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTS EXPECTED.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...BUT NOT TOO FAR
FROM SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH
18Z MONDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
00Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
