FXUS64 KLIX 010243
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
843 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM MOST
LAND AREAS TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF LAYERS OF DRIER AIR ABOUT 100 MB
DEEP HAVE WORKED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED AROUND
800 MB AND 650 MB. WHILE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS REMAIN...NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS SHOWING UP WELL OFFSHORE...SO IT WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST MID- MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALSO EASED OVER THE TIDAL
LAKES...AS WELL AS MOST LAND AREAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL LAKES HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION.
WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEYOND FIRST PERIOD. 35/11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
UPDATE...
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY SATURATED BUT A FEW AREAS OF DRY
AIR ARE EMBEDDED BETWEEN AREAS OF MOIST AIR...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE IS 1.15 INCHES. STRATIFORM CLOUDS CURRENTLY NEAR 1700 FEET
COVERED THE SKY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE PRESENT AS SEEN ON THE SOUNDING. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH UP
TO 3000 FEET THEN SHIFTS TO OUT OF THE WEST ALOFT...STRONG MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
SHORT TERM...
OBVIOUS TIME CONSTRAINTS STARTING ALREADY. HAVE UPGRADED THE ESF
PRODUCT TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR
THOSE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LA AND MISS CONTAINED IN THE WATCH AREA
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER PROBLEMS WILL BE COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH
MAINLY LOW LYING ROADWAYS IN THESE SAME COASTAL AREAS WITH GREATEST
DEPTH AROUND 1/2 FOOT OF WATER COVERAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL BE STUCK IN A COLD RAIN FOR ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT FLUCTUATE A GREAT AMOUNT THROUGH WED
MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE LOOKED AT FURTHER OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS SOME OF THESE COASTAL SECTIONS MAY EXPERIENCE 20 TO 30
MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TUE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE WORST
WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. HIGHEST TIDAL
SURGE SHOULD BE BETWEEN 9PM AND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
THE SFC LOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE WESTERN GULF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE PATH
SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME SE LA INTO SE MISS. COLD AIR AND CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING
FOR THU.
LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. WON'T ELABORATE ON GFS SOLUTION FOR FRI INTO SAT AS IT
MAY BE OVERDONE SINCE A VERY DEEP LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THIS FOLLOWS MORE ALONG
THE LINES OF THE ECMWF ATTM BUT SEVERAL MORE CYCLES OF GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS WILL GIVE A BETTER RESOLUTION OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AROUND 1KFT FOR MOST SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 3KFT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS. CEILINGS AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT FALLING INTO IFR BY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. WE WILL
SEE TWO ISSUES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STATUS. THE SFC THAT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SE LA AND SE MISS BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS TO THE AREA. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED AND THIS MAY
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY TOMORROW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 12 TO 14 FEET AS A DEEP FETCH OF 25 TO 35 KNOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP OVER THE GULF BY TUE NIGHT. ONCE THE LOW
PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ALMOST AS STRONG BUT SEAS
WILL COME DOWN SOMEWHAT DUE TO FETCH LIMITATIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 44 53 47 55 / 10 60 70 50
BTR 46 55 48 57 / 10 70 70 50
MSY 53 58 53 62 / 10 80 80 50
GPT 48 58 54 60 / 10 70 90 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...AND
UPPER ST. BERNARD.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
GALE WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
GALE WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
