FXUS64 KTSA 012104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO AND WRN TEXAS THIS 
AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF REFLECTIVITY SHIELD CROSSING RED RIVER 
INTO PARTS OF SC OK. POPS TO INCREASE AREA WIDE TONIGHT...WITH THE 
HIGHEST POPS TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OK IN CLOSER PROXIMITY WITH 
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. FEATURE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS TX 
OVERNIGHT...AND BE LOCATED OVER NE TX BY 12Z TOMORROW. NOT CONFIDENT 
IN MUCH OF THE WAY IN SNOW CHANCES AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND 
THE LOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS AR. LOW 
LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A FULL 
CHANGEOVER...HOWEVER WILL KEEP A MIX IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW AR AS THIS WOULD BE THE LIKELIEST LOCALE FOR 
ANY WINTRY PRECIP. REGARDLESS...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. 
SEASONABLE WEATHER ON THE WAY BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT 
CHANCES OF RAIN( POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON TIMING) 
COMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.  DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MAV 
GUIDANCE...AND USED MORE OF BLEND OF MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS TOWARDS 
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.             

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  43  28  42 /  60  50  10  10 
FSM   37  44  28  41 /  60  80  10  10 
MLC   39  44  29  43 /  80  70  10  10 
BVO   36  42  25  41 /  40  40  10  10 
FYV   35  40  24  40 /  30  80  10  10 
BYV   35  41  25  39 /  20  80  10  10 
MKO   37  44  27  41 /  60  60  10  10 
MIO   36  41  24  40 /  20  50  10  10 
F10   38  44  27  43 /  60  60  10  10 
HHW   40  45  30  45 /  90  90  10  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....23