FXUS63 KLBF 090842
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
242 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE NEG TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST 
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOOD PRESSURE FALLS AS A RESULT...WITH SFC 
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO WESTERN 
ILLINOIS. SYSTEM IS MOVING QUITE RAPIDLY...AND THUS TIGHTEST 
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY 
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA...AND HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND CANCEL 
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY THAT WERE TO GO TILL 6 AM CDT 
FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES. IN IT/S PLACE...WILL EXPAND THE WIND CHILL 
ADVISORY EAST...AND WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AREA UNTIL 10 
AM CDT. NEXT BIG STORY ARE THE TEMPERATURES...AND IN A 
NUTSHELL...NOT GOING TO GO ANYWHERE TODAY...AND BOTTOM FALLS OUT 
TONIGHT. H925 TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE -10C SW AND -15C NE 
TODAY...AND WITH FRESH SNOW COVER...SINGLE DIGITS SHOULD DO IT FOR 
HIGHS. TONIGHT IS REALLY LOOKING COLD...AS SOUNDINGS EXTREMELY 
DRY...AND FAVORABLE DRAINAGE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. ALL AREAS SHOULD 
APPROACH -10F...AND THOSE FAVORED RIVER VALLEY AREAS LIKE LBF...NEAR 
-20F. OFFICIALLY HAVE -19F AT LBF TONIGHT...AND THAT IS THE RECORD. 
VTN/S RECORD IS -20F AND THAT LOOKS TO REMAIN SAFE.

GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ABOUT A 
FOUR OR FIVE DEGREE WARM UP EACH DAY. THAT PUTS HIGHS POSSIBLE 
APPROACHING 30F ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY...AND LOWER TO MID 
20S NORTHEAST AREAS. LOWS WILL ALSO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT. 
QUESTIONS ARISE FOR SUNDAY...AS PREVIOUS FORECAST USHERED IN MORE 
ARCTIC AIR AND POSSIBLE SNOW. HAVE PUT THE REIGNS ON THIS...AS BOTH 
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SLOWED THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL. 
HAVE OPTED TO MAKE SUNDAY/S HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SATURDAY...AND 
THIS IS A WARM UP OF A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF MODELS 
CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...THEN WE CAN RAISE TEMPS SOME MORE. 
ALSO...JUST NOT SEEING A SIGNAL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...AND 
HAVE STARTED TO UNWIND THE POPS SOME. HAVE TAKEN POPS DOWN A 
CATEGORY INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. 

MONDAY AND BEYOND...MORE COLD ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE 
AREA. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AND NO CHANGES MADE.          

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY. ALL AREAS SHOULD 
BE VFR BY 15Z. VFR WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR BY 12Z 
ALONG HIGHWAY 183. IFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z-15Z ALONG AND 
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ FOR ALL 
ZONES.  

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAYLOR
AVIATION...COLE