FXUS63 KICT 300847
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
247 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON NOTICEABLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFFECTING KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.

TDY-TONIGHT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH WESTERLY 
WINDS BACKING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD 
WEATHER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH THE STAR OUT IN 
FULL FORCE AND DAYTIME HIGHS ~10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. 

TUE-WED
TUESDAY WILL BE THE LAST MILD WEATHER DAY FOR KANSAS BEFORE BIG 
WEATHER CHANGES ARRIVE ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS 
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL 
DISLODGE A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF COLD POLAR AIR FROM THE ARCTIC 
REGION...AND SEND IT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THIS 
PERIOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE FOR RAW 
WINTER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. 

EXTENDED: THU-SUN
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DEEP POLAR VORTEX FORMING NEAR 
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP 
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS KANSAS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 15 
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY MODIFY FOR SATURDAY 
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY DECEMBER VALUES. MEANWHILE...A 
INTENSE UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL TRANSVERSE SOUTHWARD ACROSS 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME 
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE WILL 
NOT MENTION LIGHT SNOW AT JUNCTURE DUE TO EXPECTED DRY LOW LEVELS 
EVAPORATING MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER IF THE LOW LOW LEVELS 
CAN MOISTEN UP MORE FROM LATER MODEL RUNS THEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS 
COULD BE INSERTED BY LATER SHIFTS. 

JAKUB

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE 
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST AS MON 
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. 

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0 
HUTCHINSON      59  31  57  32 /   0   0   0   0 
NEWTON          57  31  56  33 /   0   0   0   0 
ELDORADO        57  32  55  34 /   0   0   0   0 
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  32  55  36 /   0   0   0  10 
RUSSELL         61  29  59  27 /   0   0   0   0 
GREAT BEND      60  29  58  29 /   0   0   0   0 
SALINA          60  31  58  30 /   0   0   0   0 
MCPHERSON       59  31  57  32 /   0   0   0   0 
COFFEYVILLE     56  33  54  36 /   0   0   0  10 
CHANUTE         56  33  55  36 /   0   0   0  10 
IOLA            56  33  55  35 /   0   0   0  10 
PARSONS-KPPF    56  33  55  36 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$