FXUS63 KFGF 290938
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...
500 MB SHORT WAVE IS PASSING INTO NE MN ATTM WITH AREA OF SNOW
OVER NE MN INTO NW WISCONSIN MOVING OUT OF THE BAUDETTE AREA. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS MORNING BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL THIS
AFTN AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
IN THE COLD ADV WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN ND/NW MN MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. CLEARING EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING CLEARING INTO
THE DVL BASIN NR 12Z AND THEN TO GFK AROUND 17-18Z. THUS WILL HANG
ON TO CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING ERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA WITH
GRADUAL AFTN CLEARING...THOUGH AREAS EAST OF A BDE-FSE-DTL-FFM
LINE MAY SEE CLOUDS ALL DAY LONG. WITH CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPS WILL
START OFF MILDER THAN EXPECTED SO ANY AFTN SUN WILL ALLOW A FEW
DEGREE WARM UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S MOST AREAS.

NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM NRN ALBERTA INTO NW
ONTARIO AND NE MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME FLURRIES OR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ON NOSE OF A 110 KT 250 MB
JET INTO NRN MN MONDAY MORNING. COORD WITH MPX AND DLH AND DID
MENTION SOME FLURRIES OVER MOST OF NW MN AND SOME LOW POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW ROSEAU-WADENA EASTWARD. OTHERWISE WOULD LOOK FOR SOME
SUN OVER SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA AND WARMING AT 850 MB
LEVEL. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S
DVL-FARGO SOUTHWESTWARD.  

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONGER 500 MB
SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST THRU SRN CANADA. TRACK IS DIFFERENT THOUGH
WITH NAM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SFC LOW ALONG CANADIAN BORDER
VERUS GFS/GEM/UKMET/ECMWF WHICH HAS SFC LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH
AND MAIN PCPN NORTH OF WINNIPEG VERSUS NAM WHICH HAS PCPN MORE
ALONG A BRANDON-WINNIPEG-KENORA LINE. ATTM BELIEVE A BIT FARTHER
NORTH SOLN IS BEST. CURRENT GRIDDS HAVE 20 POPS IN FAR NORTH
TUESDAY. LOOKS IFFY...BUT BASED ON COORD WILL LEAVE IN FOR
NOW...BUT FEEL ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL BE VERY LIMITED AT
BEST. 500 MB LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO ONTARIO AND IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A NICE SHOT OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION AND WIND WILL
ENTER THE AREA TUES AFTN/EVE. UKMET AND GFS HAVE 50 KTS AT 850 MB
OVER NRN VALLEY TUES AFTN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SAY SOME OF THIS MAY
MIX DOWN AS GFS SOUNDINGS FOR GFK SHOWS A WEAK INVERSION NR 950 MB
BUT OTHERWISE A PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATE UP TO 850 MB IN THE MID
AFTN.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL WIND ADVISORY SITUATION.  

COLDER AIR AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL ENTER THE
PICTURE TUES AFTN AND SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR
TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THRU THURSDAY WITH SOME
FLURRIES BEFORE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN AND SKIES CLEAR SOMETIME
THURSDAY AFTN OR NIGHT.  

.LONG TERM...
COORD WITH BIS ON LOWS WED NIGHT AND THUR NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD TRENDS...LOW TEMPS BELOW NORMAL MAY OCCUR FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN A LONG WHILE WITH SINGLE DIGITS ESP UP IN THE DVL ZONE WHICH
WOULD STAND THE BEST CHC OF SEEING CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS
IS ESPEICALLY TRUE IF ECMWF IS CORRECT WHICH HOLDS SFC RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THU NIGHT ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES.  

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THRU MID MORNING MAINLY HALLOCK-THIEF RIVER-PARK RAPIDS AREA
EASTWARD AS AIRMASS IN THIS AREA MORE MOIST DUE TO LIGHT SNOWS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. WEBCAMS SHOW A DUSTING OF NEW SNOW OCCURRED UP
ALONG THE BORDER AND IN THE LAKES AREA AROUND ALEXANDRIA AND PARK
RAPIDS. MVFR CIGS IN ERN ND WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF DVL REGION
NR 12Z AND GFK-FAR MAYBE TOWARD 18Z.  

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
RIDDLE