FXUS64 KBMX 271157 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
556 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 511 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
BEAUTIFUL DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
NOW OVER THE AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THUS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FEEL A TAD WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND OR AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THROUGH THIS POINT...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. TWO THINGS THAT STICK OUT IS THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT. SO MONDAY HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO BE ONE OF
THOSE DREARY RAINY COLD DAYS.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
MOVES IN. HOWEVER...THINGS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A UPPER LEVEL SURFACE LOW.
COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THIS SOLUTION FOR THE LAST
TWO DAYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN QUITE LOW THOUGH DUE TO
THE WIDE RANGES IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH WAS PRODUCING
LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW MEMBERS.
ALTHOUGH A HIGH SPREAD STILL EXITS...IT IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS
IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO LOCK IN TO A SPECIFIC
SOLUTION.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE DEALING WITH SOME
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE GATHERS STRENGTH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE...SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...WE'LL BE DEALING WITH SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. GFS IS MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF IN
THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING FOR ANY LEFTOVER
PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS THAT THE
ECMWF IS NOW COMING IN WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL A GOOD WAYS OUT THOUGH...SO LET'S SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR TAFS FOR THE 24HR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH ONLY
LIGHT NW WINDS 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY WITH MIXING...TAPERING OFF
AFTER SUNSET.
08/MNK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 54 29 63 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 56 32 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 58 32 64 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 60 33 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
CALERA 58 33 64 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 57 37 63 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 61 33 64 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
TROY 60 32 64 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
10/08
