FXUS64 KBMX 231751
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
EVERYTHING PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. WE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING THE INCREASE IN WINDS BEGINNING TOMORROW
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY ISSUE A CORRESPONDING WIND ADVISORY WITH
THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
IN REGARDS TO TOMORROW...SPC MOVED THEIR SLIGHT RISK AREA CLOSER TO
OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH WAS EXPECTED AS THE 60-62 DEGREE DEW
POINT LINE WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IS LIKELY TO GET INTO MARENGO
AND SUMTER COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THE AREA JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVERTISED SQUALL LINE GOING FOR JUST A LITTLE
LONGER GIVING THIS AREA THE CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO SEVERE GUSTS BEFORE
THE LINE FALLS APART IN THE MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.
OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS. 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY IS GOING TO CAUSE TRAVEL HAZARDS...AND WITH IT BEING
CHRISTMAS EVE...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TRAFFIC ON THE ROADS.
PLEASE USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING TO YOUR DESTINATION TOMORROW.
27
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU 06Z. RAIN OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND STAY NORTH OF TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. 5000 FOOT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE WEST KEEPING SKIES BROKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
LOWER CLOUDS WITH CIGS 1500-2500 FEET WILL LIKELY FORM AFTER 06Z DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RAPIDLY DEEPENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE AND AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY 18Z. GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH 25 KNOTS BY 18Z. WITH SUCH STRONG
SURFACE WINDS LLWS THRESHOLDS WILL BE HARD TO REALIZE DESPITE 30 TO
40 KNOT 2000 FOOT WINDS.
12/SIRMON
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
