FXUS64 KLZK 040411 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1005 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM IN 
WEST TEXAS. EVEN SO...THE SKY REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVER PORTIONS OF 
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND THIS WAS ALLOWING 
TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND PATCHY FOG TO FORM.

KEPT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUDS IN 
THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COME UP A BIT...AND DEWPOINTS 
MAY ACTUALLY DROP A LITTLE. PUT IN SOME FOG FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT IT 
IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL MORNING.

TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. (46)
&&
  
.AVIATION...
MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL BECOME NORTH AROUND 8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. ACROSS THE FOUR SOUTHERN SITES...SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 110 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON GIVES A GREAT PICTURE OF THE NEXT 
SURGE OF COLD AIR IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWN FROM THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH AN 
INCREASE IN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/OR 
EVEN A SNOWFLAKE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY 
NIGHT...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE ELSE. 

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE COLD. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN 
BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND CLOUDS DECREASING FRIDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH 
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED 
TO SEE SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEY AREAS OF THE NORTH A LITTLE 
COLDER. 

AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER FLOW 
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND THE HIGH MOVES EAST. BY LATE SUNDAY...A 
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
MOVING UP AHEAD OF IT. DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH TO THIS 
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 
NIGHT. COULD BE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE THE 
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 15 DEGREES 
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NE OVER THE MID MS 
RIVER VALLEY REGION...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE 
SRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST MON 
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS 
THE SRN ROCKIES TUE. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL 
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...THEN LIFT NE AND STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER 
LOW MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. CHANCES OF RAIN 
INCREASE TUE NIGHT...AND LINGER INTO WED. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN 
BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR 
CHANGING OVER TO WINTRY PRECIP WED AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...TOO 
EARLY TO GET INTO MANY DETAILS REGARDING PRECIP TYPE DUE TO 
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING OF THIS MID WEEK STORM 
SYSTEM...BUT HAVE MENTIONED A RA/SN MIX FOR NOW ACROSS NRN AND WRN 
COUNTIES. 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$