FXUS65 KPUB 261135
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
435 AM MST THU NOV 26 2009
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
...SUNNY AND MILD THANKSGIVING...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER COLORADO TODAY FOR DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS REGION WIDE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES.
THERE MIGHT BE A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT EVEN THOSE WILL
BE HARD TO FIND.
FOR TONIGHT...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE. THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...MOVING FROM WESTERN COLORADO TO EASTERN
COLORADO. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SURFACE RADIATION
INVERSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...GENERALLY WITHIN 5 DEGREES. LW
.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AS TWO SYSTEM GEAR UP TO IMPACT SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT ONE LAST WARM DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION AND DRY WARM WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THERE REMAINS A HIGH SPREAD IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AMONG VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S OVER EASTERN COLORADO FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOWER 70S.
MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
REGARDS TO TRACK OF TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...HOWEVER THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. NAM/ECMWF/SREF
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION EASTWARD SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 06Z GFS SOLUTION
HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION GENERATING MUCH
MORE THAN ITS 00Z SOLUTION AND ALL OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
CONTINUED THE BROAD CHANCE POPS SUNDAY WITH DECREASING
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING.
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS LOOK TO DROP THE BRITISH COLUMBIA TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS OR ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR POSSIBLE. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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