FXUS61 KBOX 242324
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
624 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
A PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER INLAND WITH MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE COAST.
THE LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEPART SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL
STORM MAY BRING MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AROUND NEW
YEARS EVE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSIPATED. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGS THE
PROBLEM OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MARINE MOISTURE PROVIDING LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOUTHEAST MA AND THE CAPE. NEAR AND ALONG THE CAPE IT IS
LIKELY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AWAY FROM THE
CAPE...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOWER CLOUDS WOULD REFORM BUT
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME CIRRUS
MOVING IN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...FEWER CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY
DIMINISHING WINDS AND AN EXISTING SNOWPACK WILL BRING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A NORTHEAST
FLOW OFF MASSACHUSETTS BAY. HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WELL AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST STORM AND A
SECONDARY LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS.
ONCE AGAIN THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT MARINE INFLUENCE WITH RESPECT
TO CLOUD COVER. NAM INDICATES THAT THE NORTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MARINE STRATUS INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CHRISTMAS DAY COULD
BE CLOUDIER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...SO WILL GO
WITH DRIER FORECAST. TEMPS A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
WELL TO THE WEST AND RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DOMINATES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE LOW
LEVELS BECOMING SATURATED BENEATH THE MID LEVEL DRY LAYER. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOK TO THEM FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR...FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE MORE DANGEROUS THAN A
FOOT OF SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THREAT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION
AND POSSIBLE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS COULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
FZDZ...BUT THAT DOESN/T LOOK QUITE AS LIKELY RIGHT NOW. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE WEST OF I-95...WITH PERHAPS
THE MONADNOCKS AND WORCESTER HILLS BEING A MORE LIKELY SPOT GIVEN
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE SLOW TO DO SO GIVEN THE
WELL-AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS FAR AS
POPS GO...ONLY WENT AS HIGH AS CHANCE FOR THE EASTERN ZONES BY LATE
IN THE DAY...WITH LIKELY IN THE FAR WEST. MUCH OF THE PRECIP DURING
THE DAY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT IT GETS TRICKY FOR THE
INTERIOR AS THICKNESSES WILL BE MARGINAL. COULD SEE A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN ALL RAIN AT TIMES. BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS.
OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING HEAVY PRECIP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS MAIN SLUG OF
RAINFALL MOVES ON IN WITH THE SELY LLJ. AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH ENOUGH RELATIVELY WARM AIR WILL FLOOD NORTHWARD TO PRECLUDE A
MAJOR ICE EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SOME ESPECIALLY PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE BERKS...MONADS...AND THE
WORCESTER HILLS FOR SOME POCKETS OF ENHANCED ICING. MOST OTHER AREAS
WILL BE A PLAIN COLD RAIN. THIS COULD SPELL SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING AS A LOT OF STORM DRAINS ARE LIKELY STUFFED WITH
SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS STORM. WE AREN/T EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAINFALL...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN
INCH OR SO.
DRY SLOT QUICKLY MOVES IN ON SUNDAY...ENDING THE PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST COAST OF MASS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD ACTUALLY BE HALFWAY DECENT...WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND SUN IN THE DRY SLOT. IF ALL BREAKS RIGHT...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS AROUND 50F ON THE COASTAL PLAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW GOING...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS A
LOW PROB THAT WE COULD HAVE A 1-3 INCH SNOW EVENT OUT OF THIS...BUT
IT MAY STAY JUST SOUTH OF US. VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WED IN WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT. WIND ADVISORY EVENT
POSSIBLE TUE...ALONG WITH NASTY WIND CHILLS.
THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR NEW YEARS EVE...AND THIS
CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...AS OF 23Z...ALL AREAS ARE VFR EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE CIGS ARE AROUND BKN015. THESE
MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT IT/S POSSIBLE
THAT COASTAL LOCATIONS HOLD ONTO THE CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A FEW TERMINALS MAY SEE VSBYS COME DOWN IN MIST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR BOSTON WHERE THEY SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE 6
MILES. ORH MAY COME DOWN TO A HALF MILE FOR A TIME LATE.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS AT 25K FEET.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR MARINE STRATUS WORKING
ITS WAY BACK INTO EASTERN MA AND RI DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN DZ AT THE COAST AND FZDZ INTERIOR.
SATURDAY...PROBABLY MVFR TO START...BUT IT COULD BE IFR...ESPECIALLY
AT ORH. LOW CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH A
WINTRY MIX POSSIBLY AT ORH AND MAYBE MHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY.
MONDAY...VFR...BUT POSSIBLE MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR...GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER SCA CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KTS. SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS
CONTINUES DURING THE DAY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...NW GALES PROBABLE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
232-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254-
255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...EKSTER/NMB
MARINE...EKSTER/NMB
