FXUS62 KJAX 240741
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 AM EST THU DEC 24 2009
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TODAY...INCREASING ONSHORE/SELY FLOW HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SOME LOW
STRATUS INLAND WITH A FEW VSBY RESTRICTIONS...BUT OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG...JUST PATCHY IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS E/SELY WINDS
BECOME BREEZY AT 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. MODERATING MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER 60S ACRS SERN
GA AND LOWER TO MID 70S ACRS NERN FL. A FEW LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE TN
VALLEY AND SEND A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL AID IN
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. A SQUALL
LINE WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO INLD SERN GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
END UP CLOSE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 50 MPH WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN IN THE STRONGER SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
KEPT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZFP/GRIDS. WILL LIKELY
RE-ISSUE AND REFINE WORDING IN SPS PRODUCT THAT WAS ISSUED
YESTERDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED.
CHRISTMAS DAY...ONGOING SQUALL LINE ACTIVITY IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S BUT WILL
PROBABLY BE SOMETIME IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPS
FALL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FRI NIGHT...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO THE ATLC
COASTAL WATERS WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S BY
EARLY SAT MORNING AND EVEN SOME 30S ACRS INLD SERN GA.
SATURDAY...NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACRS CNTRL AND SRN FL
WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED LOCALLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER COOL IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACRS NERN FL.
SAT NIGHT...EVEN COLDER AND DRIER AIR POURING INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE LATEST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MIN TEMPS TO NEAR FREEZING ACRS INLD
AREAS AND CLOSER TO 40 ALONG THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE
INLD AS WEAK RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND GENERALLY SFC TO 700 MB FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MAX TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S WITH A
LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ACRS INLD AREAS. EXPECTING MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
JET STREAM CIRRUS CLOUD DECKS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH MIN TEMP
FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT JAX...VQQ...GNV
TIL AROUND 14Z. TEMPO MVFR AT CRG AND SSI BUT MAY NEED TO AMEND
THERE. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY AFTER 14Z WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO
15 WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMES
IN DURING THE EVE AND HAVE LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS AT 03Z.
&&
.MARINE...EAST WINDS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF SCA OFFSHORE BY
20Z AND HAVE BEGUN SCA NEAR SHORE BY 01Z. MAY HAVE OCNL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI AM. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS VEER TO SOUTH BY FRI AM AND
INTO THE WEST FRI AFTERNOON AND DECREASE WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS BEGINNING TONIGHT TAPERING OFF
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI PM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 67 55 66 35 / 10 90 70 10
SSI 68 62 70 44 / 0 100 90 10
JAX 72 61 72 42 / 0 90 80 10
SGJ 73 64 74 47 / 0 80 80 10
GNV 75 59 73 42 / 10 80 70 10
OCF 75 61 74 45 / 10 70 70 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO
60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
HESS/PETERSON
