FXUS64 KMEG 281134 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
A PLEASANT DAY WEATHERWISE IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LATE DAY IN
NOVEMBER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
MS...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IT WILL ONLY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ACROSS NORTH MS. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH
LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND EASTERN OK BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
BY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. CAN NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BY LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE CLOUDS...BUT DO NOT THINK WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM THE WEST WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHEAST
AR INTO NORTHEAST TX BY SUNSET. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FORECAST BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 1/2 INCH OF RAIN.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF NORTHEAST MS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A WET GROUND FROM THE EARLIER
RAIN.
SEASONABLY COOL AND SUNNY WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY AS WE ARE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO TEXAS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH.
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MOVES IT DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
THE 00Z GFS WAS FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE 06Z GFS HAS TENDED
FURTHER NORTH ALTHOUGH STILL NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE 00Z ECMWF.
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS. SPREAD A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MENTIONED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER FORECASTS.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THERMAL FIELDS AS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME DETERMINING IF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND
WILL LEAVE AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW.
DRY AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER AS COLD CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA...THICKEN...AND LOWER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 15-23Z THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 67 48 62 46 / 0 10 50 90
MKL 66 44 60 43 / 0 10 40 90
JBR 65 46 57 40 / 0 10 70 90
TUP 64 42 65 50 / 0 10 30 80
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
