FXUS65 KLKN 092306
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
306 PM PST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...VERY COLD AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PUSHING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT. &&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND FRESH SNOW AIDS IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. MANY
OF THE VALLEY AREAS IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA CAN EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE...WITH -25 TO -35 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER MID-SLOPES AND MOUNTAINS
DUE TO INVERSIONS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO CENTRAL CA. SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
QFP LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM...BUT IN
GENERAL THEY AGREE THAT ANY SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND SPREAD INTO EAST-CENTRAL
NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF
INCH OF QPF TO CENTRAL NEVADA SAT-SAT NIGHT WITH MODERATE SNOW
EXPECTED. CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS COOL AIR IS TRAPPED AT THE
SURFACE AND WARM MOIST AIR OVER-RUNS. DO NOT HOWEVER HAVE FREEZING
RAIN IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER 
PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND 
ABOVE AVG PRECIP EXPECTED.  SPLIT FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN 
CONUS WITH A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING TO 
WEAK RIDGING BY MID-WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR 
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM. A STRONG 500MB PACIFIC TROUGH WILL 
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE WILL HELP ENHANCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ON THE LEESIDE OF THE 
SIERRA NEVADA. EXACT LOCATION OFF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL 
DICTATE WERE THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT 
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL NV AT THIS TIME. PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED 
TO BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD 
OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER VLY OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL 
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NV WITH 
MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BY MONDAY MID-LEVEL RIDGING 
WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE SW CONUS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE 
STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE. A PACIFIC NW TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHERN 
NV ON TUESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A GLANCING BLOW WITH MTN SNOW SHOWERS 
AND VLY RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL 
NOT MUCH AGREEMENT...BUT CENTRAL NV IS LOOKING DRIER AND WARMER THEN 
NORTHERN NV NEXT WEEK. &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...BEFORE 
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPS AT KEKO FROM 10Z-14Z. FOG DEVELOPMENT ISN'T 
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS OTHER TAF TERMINALS...BUT THERE IS A 
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KWMC. FOG WILL QUICKLY 
BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
PERIOD. &&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&

$$

96/95/95