FXUS63 KSGF 160901
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CST WED DEC 16 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
REGIME. CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. OUR COLD START WILL BE MET WITH A DECENT WARM UP
TODAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS EXPECTED UNDER A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT...THURSDAY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE REGION.
WE WILL OBSERVE ANOTHER INSTANCE OF STRONG FORCING WITH MEAGER
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE...THOUGH SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CHANGING TO
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STYMIE
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...THOUGH REGISTER AT OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.
SATURDAY ONWARD...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN...RIDGING WEST...TROUGHING EAST...
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT JUST SEEMS WE CAN/T SHAKE THE
EASTERN TROUGH. AS A RESULT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
US A COLD FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH ONLY A PASSING/MARGINAL SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GAGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREAS WEATHER
REGIME.
GAGAN
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
