FXUS65 KABQ 101009
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
309 AM MST THU DEC 10 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE 160KT JET CORE IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND A DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SHAPING UP
OVER THE WESTERN COAST WITH SIGNS OF SPLIT FLOW CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR MASS IS FLOATING OVER
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...RIGHT NEAR KCAO WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ALONG WITH THE WINDS ON THE
WAFFLING BOUNDARY. FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL STAY
WESTERLY TODAY WITH H7-H5 WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING SOME. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN SOME AREAS
WHERE SNOW PACK SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING...BUT ALL AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS DESPITE THE SLOW TREND UPWARD.
MID TO UPPER FLOW STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE OR LIFT TO WORK WITH...THEREFORE ALL POPS WERE
DROPPED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES. SINGLE DIGIT TO
SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT STILL NOT AS COOL AS NIGHTS/MORNINGS PAST.
FOR FRIDAY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY AS A WEAK
WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
POPS IN THE WEST...FAVORING THE CHUSKAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR
THE ARIZONA BORDER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SKIMS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY...HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT AS MID/UPPER FLOW PICKS UP. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS GRAZING THE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST. ANOTHER WAVE OF
ENERGY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AGAIN
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS ONE ACTING AS PART OF A BROADER CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
DRAG A SLUG OF VORTICITY OVER THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASED COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN
JUANS...CHUSKAS...AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE FLOW TURNS LIGHTER AND MORE NORTHWESTERLY
BEFORE A CUT OFF LOW SHAPES UP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE WESTERN
STATES.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 KT OVER THE SUMMITS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z...WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z AND CONTG THROUGH
02Z THIS EVENING. CIGS AOA FL200 WILL FALL TO OVC100 FROM 00Z ONWARD
THIS EVENING ACROSS NEW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT MT TOP OBSCURATION
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM 00Z ONWARD THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. SHY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TODAY...ROUND BOTTOM TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WILL KEEP STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO FOR
ANOTHER DAY TODAY. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING
HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND TROUGH NOSING NORTHWARD FROM
CHIHUAHUA ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
ACCELERATED WINDS GUSTY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO SUMMITS AND EAST
SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GRADUAL SCOUR OF COLD AIR OUT OF
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL SET UP A FEW DEGREES WARM UP...INTERRUPTED
ONLY BY SPATES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BROADLY IN THE 30S AND 40S TODAY WILL
BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...WITH AFTERNOON SNOW MELT
EVAPORATING QUICKLY INTO LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HUMIDITIES. WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TODAY...MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR MARGINAL VENTILATION CONDITIONS FOR ALL
BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IN COLD
TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY...BROAD WESTERN U.S. TROUGH LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR ZONAL...AND MOVING QUICK HITTER WEATHER
SYSTEM EASTWARD. EXPRESSION WILL BE MAINLY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LIMITING WARM UPS TO A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
CHANGING LITTLE. SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SAN JUANS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST TO THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW BROADLY ABOVE 5 TO 6000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING VENTILATION CONDITIONS
OVERALL...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING MARGINAL IN LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS.
SATURDAY...APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
REINFORCING SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER COVERAGE FOR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY OVER
THE SAN JUANS AND HIGHER COUNTRY OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
OVER SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
SATURDAY HUMIDITIES FALLING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...BUT MINIMUM
VALUES REMAINING IN THE 30S PCT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PACIFIC STORM MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW WILL START
EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH MOVING INTO MONDAY WITH FALLING SNOW LEVELS
SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD DRY AIR PENETRATING INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH
COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST AS STORM MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PCT WITH
REDUCED MONDAY AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ESTABLISHED ON A CLEARING TUESDAY WITH WARM UP IN PLAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL UNDER BUILDING RIDGE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
SHY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 35 9 36 21 / 0 5 5 20
DULCE........................... 34 -3 38 7 / 0 5 10 30
CUBA............................ 37 3 39 12 / 0 0 5 30
GALLUP.......................... 38 9 40 19 / 0 5 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 39 12 38 14 / 0 5 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 40 9 41 18 / 0 0 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 44 14 44 18 / 0 5 5 10
GLENWOOD........................ 52 24 54 25 / 0 0 5 10
CHAMA........................... 26 -2 31 4 / 0 0 10 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 29 12 38 15 / 0 0 5 20
PECOS........................... 38 12 42 18 / 0 0 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 27 -2 33 6 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 22 -7 30 1 / 0 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 -6 33 2 / 0 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 29 0 34 8 / 0 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 36 5 43 10 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 33 12 38 20 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 35 14 39 22 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 37 21 41 27 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 38 22 42 28 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 14 44 20 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 39 17 43 21 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 45 14 49 19 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 20 45 25 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 48 17 50 21 / 0 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 9 36 14 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 10 43 18 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 33 16 37 23 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 22 47 23 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 23 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 23 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 32 1 40 13 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 34 2 39 15 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 37 15 44 20 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 30 15 40 22 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 33 12 42 24 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 39 16 43 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 17 44 25 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 39 16 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 43 25 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 45 22 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 45 20 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 49 27 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 26 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 49 24 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52/SHY
