FXUS64 KLZK 102301 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
501 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME CIRRUS AND ALTOCU MOVING ACROSS...
BUT LITTLE ELSE AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
11/00Z...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. TAFS WILL BE AVAILABLE AT 2320Z. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL KEEP 
SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW CLOUDS WILL 
RETURN TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEENS IN THE NORTH TO 
MID 20S IN THE SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY BUT WILL 
STILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY. 

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY 
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL RETURN TO 
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREAD NORTH. WITH DRY AIR IN 
PLACE...ENOUGH COOLING MAY OCCUR TO PRODUCE LIGHT SLEET WHICH WOULD 
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF 
THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. 
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY 
NIGHT WILL BE RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THE SHORT WAVE 
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR 
ANOTHER DRY DAY. 

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
W/SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYS ACRS THE REGION AT 
THE START OF THE PD. MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP 
ASSOCD WITH THIS SYS WL AFFECT MAINLY SERN AR...WITH MUCH LIGHTER 
AMOUNTS FURTHER NWD. AN UPR LVL TROF...DROPPING SEWD FM THE PLAINS...
WL PASS ACRS THE MID SOUTH ON TUE AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER 
AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FA. LATEST GFS SOLUTION INDCS COLDER AIRMASS 
BLDG FURTHER SWD BY MIDWEEK COMPARED TO THE WARMER ECMWF. OPTED TO 
USE A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS FOR TEMPS WHICH RESULTS IN GOOD 
CONSISTENCY THRU THE PD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57