FXUS63 KMKX 092113
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE HIGH. 

MAIN CONCERN IS HOW TO HANDLE CLEANING UP THE HEADLINES FOR
TONIGHT. BLIZZARD CRITERIA IS NOT BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...A
COMBINATION OF WINDS STRUGGLING TO REACH 35 MPH AND THE FACT THAT
THE SNOW IS QUITE HEAVY/WET. RAMPING DOWN TO AN ADVISORY FOR
BLOWING SNOW WOULD PROBABLY BE OVERKILL AS WELL SINCE VSBYS NEED
TO BE FREQUENTLY REDUCED TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. THE SNOW IS JUST TOO
WET/HEAVY TO BLOW AROUND. BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
DRIFTING AND ROADS ARE LIKELY IN POOR SHAPE IN MANY AREAS. THE
MEGA LOW IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX AND BRING DOWN THE WINDS. COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT AND MOS
GUIDANCE IS TYPICALLY TOO WARM AFTER A FRESH SNOWFALL AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION. WILL DROP THEM A BIT MORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WITH WINDS STILL ELEVATED TONIGHT AND TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR
ZERO...WILL NEED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WE CURRENTLY HAVE ONE
RUNNING FROM 3 AM TO NOON ON THURSDAY AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. 

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WE REMAIN COLD THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WE GENERALLY SIT UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SO NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED. 

WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO THE
WEST. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THIS DOESN/T LOOK SERIOUS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG NOWRTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AROUND 
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 
TRANSITIONING TO A MOSTLY MVFR CEILING/VISIBILITY SITUATION. 
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE REMAINING SNOW AND 
BLOWING SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOS/BUFKIT AND LOW LEVEL RH 
PROGS SUGGESTING IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY. WILL TREND TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVELY TIGHT 
GRADIENT AROUND 976 MILLIBAR LOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM LOWER 
MICHIGAN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CRITERIA GALES THROUGH THE NIGHT. 
WILL LIKELY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER THE 
GALE WARNING WHILE GRADIENT STILL TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT ON THURSDAY BUT 
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF GALE CONDITIONS. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ046-
     047-051-056>059-062>065-067>070.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...05
AVIATION/MARINE...10