FXUS62 KCAE 222336
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE OUR AREA CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT. MAINLY THIN
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA IN WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
WINDS NEAR CALM. WENT WITH CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH CLOUDS AS LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN DRY. WEAK SHORT WAVE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING THURSDAY. NAM IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. WEDGE
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEDGE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. NAM STILL SLOWER THAN GFS/ECMWF MOVING THE SYSTEM
EAST. WENT WITH FASTER GFS/ECMWF.
RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKING WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE EAST
WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS AS IT ARCS TOWARD THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. DRY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD THE
AREA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THAT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AGS/OGB FOR SOME FOG
BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PREVENT OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
