FXUS66 KMTR 302355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
355 PM PST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:45 PM PST MONDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IS THE MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND
60S...WITH A FEW 70S IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE DISTRICT. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MIXING...THEREFORE THE DEW PTS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THIS AFTN...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES HIGHER.

WITH RIDGING IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL BE MILD DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH COOL
NIGHTS. WITH THE DEW PTS HIGHER THIS AFTN WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT...WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ONLY IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES WHERE THE DEW
PTS REMAIN LOW.

IN THE EXTENDED...THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE THE PATTERN UNDERGO A MAJOR
SHIFT. BASED ON CHATS WITH HPC AND BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAVE
FOLLOWED THE 12Z ECMWF. WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON NIDA CENTERED NEAR
20/137E WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR APART BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ENERGY FROM THE TYPHOON WILL EJECT INTO THE WESTERLIES...
STRENGTHENING THE EAST ASIAN JET. ON SAT A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST...UNDERCUTTING A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
CENTERED OFF THE ALASKA/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE STALLS
OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST. ON SUN
THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A 992 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES IT TO
THE NORTHERN CA COAST...IF THIS VERIFIES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD
BE WINDY AND WET. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT...BUT HAVEN'T WENT FULL
BORE ON THIS SOLUTION SINCE THE DETAILS ARE STILL IN A BIT OF FLUX
(WHEREAS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SHOWING CONSISTENCY). PER THE 12Z
ECMWF...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK THE STORM DOOR IS
OPEN WITH THE WESTERLIES BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM TO THE COAST
BY WEDNESDAY.

THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOKS...ETC...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS THE END OF THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 PM PST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. EXPECT PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AFTER 10Z NEAR KSTS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MRY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TNGT...NONE

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO