FXUS62 KFFC 271029 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NW FLOW ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH
AS THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO 00Z MODELS TO SLIDE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST 00Z SUNDAY AFTER WHICH MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO RETURN. MOST MODELS SHOW NORTHERN STREAM TO BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ON SUNDAY AS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER
BAJA CA. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. USED
30 DAY BIAS-ADJUSTED MAV/MET BLEND. MET GUIDANCE GIVEN ADDITIONAL
WEIGHT FOR MAX TEMPS ON CLEAR DAYS BASED ON SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE IN
SIMILAR DRY WEATHER PATTERNS.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MED RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WITH
PROGRESSION OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH INTO
NW GA SUN NIGHT. GFS GRIDDED MOS POPS AND GEFS POP GREATER THAN
.05 USED FOR FCST POPS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THESE SEEM
TO REFLECT TIGHT GRADIENT IN MODEL MEAN RH AND PRECIP BETTER. 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF ALSO AGREE WELL ON BAJA CA LOW EJECTING EAST IN
MODERATE SOUTHERN STREAM MEAN FLOW. TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM LOCKED
ONTO TUES NIGHT GIVE OR TAKE WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP /TOTAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 IN/ LIKELY. LITTLE TO NO MUCAPE AND FAIRLY HIGH
CIN SEEN BY GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE REMOVED TSRA FROM
FCST. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE WITH 00Z MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IS
FASTER PROGRESSION OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN. THIS RESULTS IN
MUCH LESS SUBSIDENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WHICH MEANS MUCH WEAKER SFC
HIGH AND WEDGING LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS PRIOR AND DURING TUES/WED
PRECIP EVENT. CRITICAL WINTER WEATHER THICKNESSES NOT EVEN
APPROACHED UNLIKE ONE OR TWO EARLIER RUNS. PLAIN OLD COLD RAIN ON
TAP AGAIN.
SNELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO PICK
UP AND GUST THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 10-15KT AND GUST 20-25KT FROM
OF THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 56 35 64 38 66 / 5 0 0 5 5
ATLANTA 54 37 62 44 64 / 0 0 0 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 48 28 60 34 62 / 0 0 0 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 54 30 62 35 65 / 0 0 0 5 5
COLUMBUS 58 36 63 41 66 / 0 0 0 5 5
GAINESVILLE 53 35 62 42 64 / 5 0 0 5 5
MACON 58 35 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 5 5
ROME 55 30 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 56 31 63 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 5
VIDALIA 59 33 64 37 69 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
13/TDP
