FXUS65 KPIH 071035
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
335 AM MST MON DEC 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY DRAG THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BULK OF ENERGY
HOWEVER IS WELL SOUTH IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...LEAVING ONLY
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD LIE ALONG UTAH BORDER. BRIEF SHIFT OF WIND TO
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY WILL SHIFT BACK THIS EVENING TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUE THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER AND THE EASTERN PART OF THE
UTAH BORDER...BUT AGAIN NO MAJOR SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TUE AFTERNOON/WED NIGHT MAY BRING BACK THE
THREAT OF EXTREME COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. SO THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PROBLEM IS STILL THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL WARNING...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN METRO AREAS IN
THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET CLOSE BUT LIKELY WILL NOT VERIFY.
MESSICK
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW MODERATES SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES FLATTENS INTO BROAD
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS SHOULD SIGNAL A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING NEXT
TROUGH INLAND ON SUNDAY...BUT DIFFER AS TO AMPLIFICATION AND AMOUNT
OF QPF. TREND WILL BE FOR WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS...AND WILL
LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR IDZ017-019>021-023-
025-031-032.
&&
$$
