FXUS66 KMFR 241700
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 AM PST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. ANOTHER FREEZE OR FROST
HEADLINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK AS IT IS PRESENTLY ISSUED WITH
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFFSHORE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. THUS...HOLIDAY TRAVEL CONCERNS WILL BE
MINIMAL...JUST NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE CASCADES.
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
BE THE FORECAST FOR THE MT SHASTA AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
I WILL NEED TO SEE IF THERE IS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF
AND BOTH ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND NAM. THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND NAM HAVE A
WEAKER...SPLIT FLOW WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRUSHING OUR
REGION FOR A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR CURRY COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. THUS...THE QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED ARE WHETHER
IT WILL BE RAINING AT THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND WHETHER
THE VICINITY OF MT SHASTA WILL HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW SATURDY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OR PERHAPS NOTHING AT ALL. ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AREAS OF VALLEY IFR AND LOCAL
LIFR IN DOUGLAS...JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. IFR
WILL RETURN TO THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND ALSO TO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS EVENING THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ023-
ORZ024-ORZ025-ORZ026-ORZ029-ORZ030-ORZ031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
DW
