FXUS61 KILN 281150
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...BUT WILL CONTROL
THE REGIONS WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS COLD H5 LOW NR NEW ENGLAND EJECTS E...FLOW WILL BACK TO A MORE
WLY FLOW TODAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER E KY ATTM
SLIDES E INTO THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A SW FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPS INTO FA TODAY. A FEW CI MIGHT WORK INTO THE
AREA...BUT SUNNY SHOULD BE THE RULE TODAY.

DESPITE THE SUN...WENT A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES THRU THE
PERIOD. AS H5 S/W DIGS THRU THE NRN MS VLY...A WEAK SFC
DEVELOPS...BUT THE FA REMAINS UNDER CONTROL HIGH PRESSURE TNGT.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE OR LIFT...SO WENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AS H5 S/W DIGS INTO THE MS VLY SUN...SFC LOW AND CDFNT PUSH UP THE
OH VLY. ISENTROPIC IS WEAK IN THE MRNG...BUT QUICKLY INCREASES
DURING THE AFTN. 

00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IS SPEEDING UP THE FROPA ACRS THE FA
SUN NGT BETWEEN 00-06Z. MUCH OF THE PCPN IS POST FRONTAL...SO THE
BEST POPS WILL BE SUN NGT.

FNT IS WELL INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. NW FLOW POST FRONTAL
WILL KEEP H8 MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE N AND E. WITH H5 TROF SWINGING THRU
THE LAKES CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA...SO LINGERED A 20 POP ON
MONDAY.

WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WENT A LITTLE COOLER THE GUIDANCE.
ALSO...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...MOS TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM
ACROSS THE S...TRENDED SUNDAYS HIGHS A LTL BELOW GUID.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT.

IN SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONFLUENCE OVER THE REGION 
RESULTING IN SFC RIDGING. THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER 
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 

SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO EJECT FROM THE GULF STATES NE INTO THE OHIO VLY 
AND MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS A BROAD TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST GFS SOLN KEEPS THIS SYSTEM FAR TO OUR EAST 
WHILE THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES BRING IT INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY. WL FOLLOW THESE SOLN/S SPREADING CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS 
FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTN. WL CONT CHC POPS INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU. 

WITH BROAD TROF UPR LEVEL ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE TN VLY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE 
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KLUCK MVFR VSBYS SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING REDUCED VSBYS AT KLUK TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED GRADIENT AND LESS FAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN...DECIDED AGAINST THIS FOR 09-12Z PERIOD. SKC TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING SW...THEN SCT250 FOR END OF PERIOD WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDR