FXUS62 KMFL 280042
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
...CHILLY TONIGHT, TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
.UPDATE...INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 5F DEGREES OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR
TONIGHT...BUT KEPT EAST COAST TEMPS UNCHANGED. DEWPOINTS HAVE
RAPIDLY RECOVERED INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...EVEN MID 40S OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES.
ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SO THIS IS SURE
NOT AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS...ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM ALL GUIDANCE - INCLUDING EKDMOS
WHICH SHOWS A 90% CHANCE OF TEMPS STAYING AT OR ABOVE 43F OVER
GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES - DECIDED TO MAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. I STILL MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD.
WARMING WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THESE TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST SINCE THE FIRST WEEK
OF MARCH 2009...BUT THIS IS NOT SURPRISING BY ANY MEANS AS THIS
IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN WE EXPECT THESE COLDER SPELLS. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL S. FL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NW TO NNW 6 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MAY GO LIGHTER AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
60
&&
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WILL SLIDE
EAST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY LATER SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND BACK MORE TO THE EAST AS A WEAK FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO THE LAKE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALLS.
THE FRONT THEN MOVES NORTH AS A LOW FORMS ON THE FRONT IN THE
WESTERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY DRIVEN BY A MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN
TEXAS. THIS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIVES AND DEEPENS THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS IN TURN MOVES AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS IN LINE WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR 2 THINGS. THE
ECMWF DOESN'T PUSH THE FIRST FRONT DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AND THE GULF
LOW RIDES NORTHEAST UP THE INLAND SOUTHEAST U.S.
FOR TONIGHT, ADDED IN PATCHY FROST FOR MIN TEMPS ABOUT 36 OR 37
OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY AND THIS WILL BE IN NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR A WIND CHILL PROBLEM.
MODERATION BEGINS SUNDAY IN TEMPS. SLIGHT CHC OF POPS START
TUESDAY AND BECOME CHC WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE 6 FOOT SEAS
WILL BECOME 3 FOOT OR LESS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TO POSSIBLE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES 7 PM THIS EVENING
ALL AREAS. WE LEFT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE EASTERN AREAS. HAVE JUST ISSUED A RED FLAG FOR SATURDAY
FOR GLADES, HENDRY AND EASTERN COLLIER COUNTIES DUE TO HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE. FOR SUNDAY ON, THERE WILL BE NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 46 72 59 80 / 0 0 - 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 51 74 64 80 / 0 0 - 10
MIAMI 51 74 62 81 / 0 0 - 10
NAPLES 47 71 53 80 / 0 0 - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ067-FLZ069-FLZ071-FLZ073-FLZ075-FLZ174.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ063-
FLZ066-FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
