FXUS63 KDDC 260933
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
IT IS A BIT OF A LESS COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST THIS MORNING THAN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT CERTAINLY NOT WITHOUT IT'S CHALLENGES
AS THE MAIN UPPER DEEP COLD POOL HAS NOW SWUNG INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS ON THE SOUTH END OF A VERY
IMPRESSIVE STACKED CYCLONE OVER MISSOURI AND IOWA. ALL OF THE STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY WAS NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND MODELS WERE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON LIFTING THE DEEP CYCLONE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY LATE IN THE DAY.
OF GREATEST OPERATIONAL IMPACT THIS MORNING ARE CONCERNS FOR WIND
AND WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS OF 2 AM, NUMEROUS METARS IN ALL
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WERE MEETING OF RUNNING QUITE CLOSE TO
26KT OR HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDSPEED. WITH MANY HOURS TO GO BEFORE
SYNOPTIC CHANGES ALLOW SOME RELAXING OF THE GEOSTROPHIC WIND
GRADIENT, AND 00 UTC ANALYSIS INDICATING A 50 KT JET MAX AT THE 850
MB LEVEL FROM WRN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KS, WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY. THIS ONE WILL ONLY COVER THIS MORNING,
AS MODELS AND MOS OUTPUT ARE INDICATING THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON, SO HAVE ONLY EXTENDED THE TIMING UNTIL
1 PM CST TO ALLOW FORECASTERS TO FURTHER EVALUATE WINDS FOR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT LEAST BLUSTERY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS NEAR 25 MPH CONTINUE WITH LITTLE EXPECTATION OF SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TEMPERATURES. NEAR NEUTRAL TO PERHAPS WEAK COLD SURFACE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED DESPITE INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD YET RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD ALLOW PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DUSTING ACCUMULATION
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES BY THE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS SURFACE PRESSURE INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. JUST HOW
DRY THIS AIR WILL BE WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY FALL AT NIGHT, AND A FEW ISOLATED SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE WEST IF DRY CALM AIR IS PRESENT
MONDAY MORNING.
RUSSELL
DAYS 3-7...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
BAJA MONDAY AND MOVE OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE OPEN NATURE OF THE UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES OUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM BUT
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE DDC CWFA SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY IN
THAT AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON THE HEELS OF THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. ALL THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS WAVE. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE WAVE WILL BE TRACKING
PRETTY FAR TO THE SOUTH AND TAKING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH IT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS.
&&
AVIATION...
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE LIKELY AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS. BANDS
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE 3-5 NM RANGE AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
&&
GERARD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 19 34 16 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 28 17 33 13 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 34 18 35 17 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 34 19 36 17 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 24 19 30 18 / 30 10 10 0
P28 33 20 35 19 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
FN33/02
