FXUS63 KBIS 292158
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
358 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSES...
CURRENTLY...BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ND. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL SECTIONS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
RESIDES ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

USING A GENERAL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN AND FEATURES EXPECTED. MAIN FORECAST 
CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE CWA 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH PLAINS REMAIN ALONG 
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY 
AREA. AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH 
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING AS WINDS SHIFT FROM 
WESTERLY TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR TO ADVECT 
INTO THE REGION. 

A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES LATE MONDAY AND ENHANCE A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL THEN DRIVE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER SOMEWHERE AROUND THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND ALTHOUGH
PASSAGE ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO BRING
BEHIND IT THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. ONCE THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND A TIGHTENED
GRADIENT SHOULD BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW TO
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY TO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...STRONGER FORCING AND THUS
HEAVIER SNOWFALL LOOK TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN
CANADA. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN IN MY EASTERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 
TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE 
PERIOD.  

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH 
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD 
KEEP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOCAL 
REGION THURSDAY...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT MODERATION FRIDAY DEPENDING ON 
HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES. MUCH UNCERTAINTY AFTERWARDS AS 
MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENT S/WV 
SLIDING DOWN THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. 
CURRENT INDICATIONS POINT AT THE AIRMASS MODERATION OVER ND 
CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A MAJOR WEATHER CHANGE 
OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK.   

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. 
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE 
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. 

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BPN/WAA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NH/BPN