FXUS64 KLZK 251129 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
530 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST WINDS 3 TO 6 KNOTS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING 6 TO 12 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE REST
OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND
ONLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL
BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE STATE. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ONE UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS ANOTHER IS
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
ARKANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
MOVE EAST OVER ARKANSAS LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
REINFORCING COLD AIR. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. WITH
DRY AIR IN PLACE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FORECAST BEGINS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OFF TO THE EAST OF AR...WHILE
RETURN FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE LEVELS BACK UP OVER AR. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO AR ON
SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST. MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVER THE
AREA. FAR SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AREAS MAY NEED THUNDER AS THE FORECAST
COMES CLOSER.
MODELS HAVE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW U.S. WHICH WILL EJECT
SOME ENERGY OVER AR WITH THE COLD FRONT. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAN ECMWF...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE WET...WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER AR...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS TO
SE AR. SOME RISK OF MIXED PRECIP OVER NORTHERN AR...DUE TO COLD AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THICKNESS VALUES DO SHOW TREND. AT
THIS TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP LIQUID...BUT COULD CHANGE
WITH LATER FORECASTS. GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER TROUGH BUT NO CUT
OFF LOW. BY TUESDAY...ECMWF PUSHES ALL PRECIP EAST OF AR...WHILE GFS
HAS A SURFACE LOW OVER TN...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO NORTH AR.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TUESDAY TRENDS. ALSO IF WARM SECTOR
SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS USED A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS. AS FOR TEMPS...MORNING LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
DUE TO MOISTURE...WHILE HIGHS A BIT LOWER...DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. TUESDAY TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 57 35 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 63 35 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 56 32 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 34 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 36 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 62 37 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 61 34 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 56 33 48 30 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 58 36 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 61 37 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 59 33 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 59 36 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 60 37 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...59
