FXUS65 KLKN 011154
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
354 AM PST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND
AND THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH
WILL CRAVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SOME COLD AIR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL FILTER
INTO EASTERN NV BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPS BY THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
EASTERN NV...WITH SOME 40S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS OF HUMBOLDT AND
NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY SO SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MAIN THEME OF 
EXTENDED FCST IS COLD...WITH 500MB TROF OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST 
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST PRODUCING A GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW. 
GFS AND EC WERE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON MSTR FIELDS AND QPF 
FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT ARE STARTING TO COME 
TOGETHER JUST A BIT. 

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THRU FRIDAY...WITH SHARP SHORT WAVE 
ROTATING AROUND PLAINS TROF ON SATURDAY THRU IDAHO FROM NORTH TO 
SOUTH. EC HAS THIS WAVE STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY 
AND MONDAY. GFS BRINGS THE WAVE THRU THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON QPF SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH 
THE EC HITTING MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE DGEX DISAGREES WITH BOTH THESE 
SOLUTIONS...WITH QPF FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WILL STAY CLOSE TO ONGOING FCST. WILL 
INCREASE POPS JUST A TOUCH SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE 
ALTHO MIN'S MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO 
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REA
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NEVADA FOR 
ONE MORE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...OTHER THAN 
SCATTERED CIRRUS...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE A 
BIT OUT OF THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS MAY BE A KNOT OR TWO 
HIGHER...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. REA 
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

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